In targeted display advertising, the goal is to identify the best opportunities to display a banner ad to an online user who is most likely to take a desired action such as purchasing a product or signing up for a newsletter. Finding the best ad impression, i.e., the opportunity to show an ad to a user, requires the ability to estimate the probability that the user who sees the ad on his or her browser will take an action, i.e., the user will convert. However, conversion probability estimation is a challenging task since there is extreme data sparsity across different data dimensions and the conversion event occurs rarely. In this paper, we present our approach to conversion rate estimation which relies on utilizing past performance observations along user, publisher and advertiser data hierarchies. More specifically, we model the conversion event at different select hierarchical levels with separate binomial distributions and estimate the distribution parameters individually. Then we demonstrate how we can combine these individual estimators using logistic regression to accurately identify conversion events. In our presentation, we also discuss main practical considerations such as data imbalance, missing data, and output probability calibration, which render this estimation problem more difficult but yet need solving for a real-world implementation of the approach. We provide results from real advertising campaigns to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.
Previous work has demonstrated that the image variation of many objects (human faces in particular) under variable lighting can be effectively modeled by low dimensional linear spaces, even when there are multiple light sources and shadowing. Basis images spanning this space are usually obtained in one of three ways: A large set of images of the object under different lighting conditions is acquired, and principal component analysis (PCA) is used to estimate a subspace. Alternatively, synthetic images are rendered from a 3D model (perhaps reconstructed from images) under point sources, and again PCA is used to estimate a subspace.Finally, images rendered from a 3D model under diffuse lighting based on spherical harmonics are directly used as basis images.In this paper, we show how to arrange physical lighting so that the acquired images of each object can be directly used as the basis vectors of a low-dimensional linear space, and that this subspace is close to those acquired by the other methods. More specifically, there exist configurations of k point light source directions, with k typically ranging from 5 to 9, such that by taking k images of an object under these single sources, the resulting subspace is an effective representation for recognition under a wide range of lighting conditions. Since the subspace is generated directly from real images, potentially complex and/or brittle intermediate steps such as 3D reconstruction can be completely avoided; nor is it necessary to acquire large numbers of training images or to physically construct complex diffuse (harmonic) light fields. We validate the use of subspaces constructed in this fashion within the context of face recognition.
Today, billions of display ad impressions are purchased on a daily basis through a public auction hosted by real time bidding (RTB) exchanges. A decision has to be made for advertisers to submit a bid for each selected RTB ad request in milliseconds. Restricted by the budget, the goal is to buy a set of ad impressions to reach as many targeted users as possible. A desired action (conversion), advertiser specific, includes purchasing a product, filling out a form, signing up for emails, etc. In addition, advertisers typically prefer to spend their budget smoothly over the time in order to reach a wider range of audience accessible throughout a day and have a sustainable impact. However, since the conversions occur rarely and the occurrence feedback is normally delayed, it is very challenging to achieve both budget and performance goals at the same time. In this paper, we present an online approach to the smooth budget delivery while optimizing for the conversion performance. Our algorithm tries to select high quality impressions and adjust the bid price based on the prior performance distribution in an adaptive manner by distributing the budget optimally across time. Our experimental results from real advertising campaigns demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.
In targeted online advertising, advertisers look for maximizing campaign performance under delivery constraint within budget schedule. Most of the advertisers typically prefer to impose the delivery constraint to spend budget smoothly over the time in order to reach a wider range of audiences and have a sustainable impact. Since lots of impressions are traded through public auctions for online advertising today, the liquidity makes price elasticity and bid landscape between demand and supply change quite dynamically. Therefore, it is challenging to perform smooth pacing control and maximize campaign performance simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a smart pacing approach in which the delivery pace of each campaign is learned from both offline and online data to achieve smooth delivery and optimal performance goals. The implementation of the proposed approach in a real DSP system is also presented. Experimental evaluations on both real online ad campaigns and offline simulations show that our approach can effectively improve campaign performance and achieve delivery goals.
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