Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Inland waters are an important habitat for flora and fauna and are also used for aesthetic, recreational, and industrial needs; therefore, monitoring the current state of freshwaters and applying measures to improve water quality are of high importance. To have an efficient monitoring system that could cover large areas, the use of remote sensing data is crucial. In this study the suitability of the Sentinel-2 Multispectral Imager data is tested for observing cyanobacteria bloom events in the eutrophic lakes and retrieving the chlorophyll-a concentration – an indicator of phytoplankton biomass. The analysis is carried out using data from four lakes in Lithuania – two eutrophic blooming lakes and two oligo-mesotrophic non-blooming lakes. The results showed that reflectances are higher in the eutrophic lakes than in the oligo-mesotrophic lakes due to the presence of an optically active constituent, namely, chlorophyll-a pigment. We tested empirical equations for chlorophyll-a concentration retrieval in eutrophic lakes derived in other studies to check whether they could be used without adaptation to local conditions. Most of the equations performed well (R2 = 0.5–0.8); however, they had high RMSEs = 17–53 μg L–1. The equation used with the bottom of atmosphere data CHL8_L2A (R2 = 0.76) had the lowest RMSE = 9 μg L–1. In addition, we derived empirical equations for eutrophic lakes in Lithuania. The equations that were based on the Sentinel-2 band ratio B5/B4 and the three band (B4, B5, and B8A) expression performed the best (R2 = 0.77–0.79) and had lower RMSE = 7 μg L–1 than empirical equations from other studies. A larger in situ dataset could improve the algorithm performance in retrieving the chlorophyll-a concentration. The first attempts to map water quality parameters in eutrophic lakes in Lithuania using the data received from the Sentinel-2 MSI sensor show good results, as the changes in reflectance, caused by the changes in chlorophyll-a concentration, can be seen from satellite images.

Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.

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In response to global warming, an increase in cyanobacterial blooms is expected. In this work, the response of two native species of Planktothrix agardhii and Aphanizomenon gracile, as well as the response of two species alien to Europe—Chrysosporum bergii and Sphaerospermopsis aphanizomenoides—to gradual temperature increase was tested. The northernmost point of alien species distribution in the European continent was recorded. The tested strains of native species were favoured at 20–28 °C. Alien species acted differently along temperature gradient and their growth rate was higher than native species. Temperature range of optimal growth rate for S. aphanizomenoides was similar to native species, while C. bergii was favoured at 26–30 °C but sensitive at 18–20 °C. Under all tested temperatures, non-toxic strains of the native cyanobacteria species prevailed over the toxic ones. In P. agardhii, the decrease in concentration of microcystins and other oligopeptides with the increasing temperature was related to higher growth rate. However, changes in saxitoxin concentration in A. gracile under different temperatures were not detected. Accommodating climate change perspectives, the current work showed a high necessity of further studies of temperature effect on distribution and toxicity of both native and alien cyanobacterial species.