Leveraging smart metering solutions to support energy efficiency on the individual household level poses novel research challenges in monitoring usage and providing accurate load forecasting. Forecasting electricity usage is an especially important component that can provide intelligence to smart meters. In this paper, we propose an enhanced approach for load forecasting at the household level. The impacts of residents’ daily activities and appliance usages on the power consumption of the entire household are incorporated to improve the accuracy of the forecasting model. The contributions of this paper are threefold: (1) we addressed short-term electricity load forecasting for 24 hours ahead, not on the aggregate but on the individual household level, which fits into the Residential Power Load Forecasting (RPLF) methods; (2) for the forecasting, we utilized a household specific dataset of behaviors that influence power consumption, which was derived using segmentation and sequence mining algorithms; and (3) an extensive load forecasting study using different forecasting algorithms enhanced by the household activity patterns was undertaken.

The use of smart meter in electric power consumption plays great roll benefiting customer to control and manage their electric power usage. It creates smooth communication to build fair electric power distribution for customers and better management of whole electric system for suppliers. Machine learning predictive frameworks have been worked in order to utilize the electric energy assets effectively, productively and acknowledgment of advanced energy generation, circulation and utilization. This paper presents outline of research works identified with machine learning based forecasting of customers electric power utilization from smart meter data. The paper concentrates on exhaustive study of strategies and relative examination of classifier models utilized as a part of determining customer electric power consumption. Moreover, limitations, difficulties, points of interest and disadvantage of the past works identified with machine learning based methods determining of customers electric power consumption are over viewed.

Artificial neural networks are currently one of the most commonly used classifiers and over the recent years they have been successfully used in many practical applications, including banking and finance, health and medicine, engineering and manufacturing. A large number of error functions have been proposed in the literature to achieve a better predictive power. However, only a few works employ Tsallis statistics, although the method itself has been successfully applied in other machine learning techniques. This paper undertakes the effort to examine the q-generalized function based on Tsallis statistics as an alternative error measure in neural networks. In order to validate different performance aspects of the proposed function and to enable identification of its strengths and weaknesses the extensive simulation was prepared based on the artificial benchmarking dataset. The results indicate that Tsallis entropy error function can be successfully introduced in the neural networks yielding satisfactory results and handling with class imbalance, noise in data or use of non-informative predictors.

Construction of an ensemble model is a process of combining many diverse base predictive learners. It arises questions of how to weight each model and how to tune the parameters of the weighting process. The most straightforward approach is simply to average the base models. However, numerous studies have shown that a weighted ensemble can provide superior prediction results to a simple average of models. The main goals of this article are to propose a new weighting algorithm applicable for each tree in the Random Forest model and the comprehensive examination of the optimal parameter tuning. Importantly, the approach is motivated by its flexibility, good performance, stability, and resistance to overfitting. The proposed scheme is examined and evaluated on the Physionet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2015 data set. It consists of signals (electrocardiograms and pulsatory waveforms) from intensive care patients which triggered an alarm for five cardiac arrhythmia types (Asystole, Bradycardia, Tachycardia, Ventricular Tachycardia, and Ventricular Fultter/Fibrillation). The classification problem regards whether the alarm should or should not have been generated. It was proved that the proposed weighting approach improved classification accuracy for the three most challenging out of the five investigated arrhythmias comparing to the standard Random Forest model.

The literature indicates that 90% of clinical alarms in intensive care units might be false. This high percentage negatively impacts both patients and clinical staff. In patients, false alarms significantly increase stress levels, which is especially dangerous for cardiac patients. In clinical staff, alarm overload might lead to desensitization and could result in true alarms being ignored. In this work, we applied the random forest method to reduce false arrhythmia alarms and specifically explored different methods of probability and class assignment, as these affect the classification accuracy of the ensemble classifiers. Due to the complex nature of the problem, i.e., five types of arrhythmia and several methods to determine probability and the alarm class, a synthetic measure based on the ranks was proposed. The novelty of this contribution is the design of a synthetic measure that helps to leverage classification results in an ensemble model that indicates a decision path leading to the best result in terms of the area under the curve (AUC) measure or the global accuracy (score). The results of the research are promising. The best performance in terms of the AUC was 100% accuracy for extreme tachycardia, whereas the poorest results were for ventricular tachycardia at 87%. Similarly, in terms of the accuracy, the best results were observed for extreme tachycardia (91%), whereas ventricular tachycardia alarms were the most difficult to detect, with an accuracy of only 51%.

Forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the most important areas of research in the electric power industry, as it is a critical component of cost-efficient power system management and planning. In this context, accurate and robust load forecasting is supposed to play a key role in reducing generation costs, and deals with the reliability of the power system. However, due to demand peaks in the power system, forecasts are inaccurate and prone to high numbers of errors. In this paper, our contributions comprise a proposed data-mining scheme for demand modeling through peak detection, as well as the use of this information to feed the forecasting system. For this purpose, we have taken a different approach from that of time series forecasting, representing it as a two-stage pattern recognition problem. We have developed a peak classification model followed by a forecasting model to estimate an aggregated demand volume. We have utilized a set of machine learning algorithms to benefit from both accurate detection of the peaks and precise forecasts, as applied to the Polish power system. The key finding is that the algorithms can detect 96.3% of electricity peaks (load value equal to or above the 99th percentile of the load distribution) and deliver accurate forecasts, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.10% and resistant mean absolute percentage error (r-MAPE) of 2.70% for the 24 h forecasting horizon.

Advanced metering infrastructures such as smart metering have begun to attract increasing attention; a considerable body of research is currently focusing on load profiling and forecasting at different scales on the grid. Electricity time series clustering is an effective tool for identifying useful information in various practical applications, including the forecasting of electricity usage, which is important for providing more data to smart meters. This paper presents a comprehensive study of clustering methods for residential electricity demand profiles and further applications focused on the creation of more accurate electricity forecasts for residential customers. The contributions of this paper are threefold: (1) using data from 46 homes in Austin, Texas, the similarity measures from different time series are analyzed; (2) the optimal number of clusters for representing residential electricity use profiles is determined; and (3) an extensive load forecasting study using different segmentation-enhanced forecasting algorithms is undertaken. Finally, from the operator’s perspective, the implications of the results are discussed in terms of the use of clustering methods for grouping electrical load patterns.

Abstract:The main goal of this research is to discover the structure of home appliances usage patterns, hence providing more intelligence in smart metering systems by taking into account the usage of selected home appliances and the time of their usage. In particular, we present and apply a set of unsupervised machine learning techniques to reveal specific usage patterns observed at an individual household. The work delivers the solutions applicable in smart metering systems that might: (1) contribute to higher energy awareness; (2) support accurate usage forecasting; and (3) provide the input for demand response systems in homes with timely energy saving recommendations for users. The results provided in this paper show that determining household characteristics from smart meter data is feasible and allows for quickly grasping general trends in data.