To estimate the causal effect of refugee migration on voting outcomes in parliamentary and municipal elections in Denmark, our study is the first that addresses the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting a policy that assigned refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. We find that in all but the most urban municipalities, allocation of larger refugee shares between electoral cycles leads to an increase in the vote share for right-leaning parties with an anti-immigration agenda, and we show large differences in voters’ responses to refugee allocation according to pre-policy municipal characteristics. However, in the largest and urban municipalities, refugee allocation has—if anything—the opposite effect on vote shares for anti-immigration parties. This coincides with a sharp divide in attitudes to refugees between urban and rural populations, which may be partly explained by distinctive interactions between natives and those with different background in cities and rural areas. Refugee allocation also has a large impact on the anti-immigration parties’ choice of where to stand for municipal election, and we provide some evidence that it influences voter turnout.

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Artiklen giver en historisk indsigt i det boligsociale arbejde og beskriver, hvordan det kan medvirke til at løfte beboere i de udsatte boligområder i beskæftigelse. Vi gennemgår tidligere evalueringer af helhedsplaner og boligsociale indsatser, som bl.a. er lavet af VIVE og CFBU, og præsenterer resultater fra en BL-analyse om udviklingen i beskæftigelse ifm. den Boligsociale Helhedsplan i Fredericia. Vi evaluerer udviklingen ved hjælp af en difference-indifferences metode, hvor vi dokumenterer en stigning i beskæftigelse hos beboere i afdelinger omfattet af helhedsplanen på op til 5-8 pct.-point målt i fuldtidsbeskæftigede ift. en given kontrolgruppe.