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[1] Coral-based climate reconstructions typically have not used multiple cores from a region to capture and replicate a climate signal largely because of concerns of coral conservation, analytical expense, and time constraints. Coral Sr/Ca reproducibility through the twentieth century was investigated using three intracolony and three intercolony coral records from the reefs offshore of Amédée Island, New Caledonia. Different sampling resolutions were examined in coral Sr/Ca (fortnightly and monthly) and d 18 O (fortnightly, monthly, and seasonally) as well as similar scale subsampling of the daily in situ sea surface temperature (SST) record. The mean coral Sr/Ca, d 18 O, and SST values do not change as a function of sampling resolution. The coral Sr/Ca signal is highly reproducible; the average absolute offset between coeval monthly Sr/Ca determinations between any two coral time series is 0.035 ± 0.026 mmol/mol (1s) ($0.65°C), which is less than twice the analytical precision of the coral Sr/Ca measurements. The stack average of the monthly coral Sr/Ca variations and monthly anomalies are significantly correlated with monthly in situ SST (1967SST ( -1992; r = À0.96 and À0.64, respectively; p < 0.05; and n = 302) and 1°grid monthly SST data product ; r = À0.95 and À0.56, respectively; p < 0.05; and n = 1198). The coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction exhibits interannual and decadal-timescale fluctuations that exceed those observed in the gridded SST record, which may reflect true differences between SST at a shallow reef site and those averaged over a 1°grid box or inadequacies in the methodology used to create the gridded SST product when few observations are available. A warming trend of $0.6°C is observed in the twentieth century coral Sr/Ca-SST record.

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42′N, 82°48′W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual (~2.0°C) and multidecadal variability (~1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σ MC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades (~1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734-2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σ MC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

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[1] The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 310 recovered drill cores from the drowned reefs around the island of Tahiti (17°40′S, 149°30′W), many of which contained samples of massive corals from the genus Porites. Herein we report on one well-preserved fossil coral sample: a 13.6 cm long Porites sp. dated by uranium series techniques at 9523 ± 33 years. Monthly d 18 O and Sr/Ca determinations reveal nine clear and robust annual cycles. Coral d 18 O and Sr/Ca determinations estimate a mean temperature of ∼24.3°C (∼3.2°C colder than modern) for Tahiti at 9.5 ka; however, this estimate is viewed with caution since potential sources of cold bias in coral geochemistry remain to be resolved. The interannual variability in coral d 18 O is similar between the 9.5 ka coral record and a modern record from nearby Moorea. The seasonal cycle in coral Sr/Ca is approximately the same or greater in the 9.5 ka coral record than in modern coral records from Tahiti. Paired analysis of coral d 18 O and Sr/Ca indicates cold/wet (warm/dry) interannual anomalies, opposite from those observed in the modern instrumental record.

A prime focus of research is differentiating the contributions of natural climate variability from those that are anthropogenically forced, especially as it relates to climate prediction 1-3 . The short length of instrumental records, particularly from the South Pacific, hampers this research, specifically for investigations of decadal to centennial scale variability 1,4 . Here we present a sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction derived from highly reproducible records of strontium-to-calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) in corals from New Caledonia to investigate natural SST variability in the southwest tropical Pacific from AD 1649-1999. Our results reveal periods of warmer and colder temperatures of the order of decades during the Little Ice Age that do not correspond to long-term variations in solar irradiance or the 11-year sunspot cycle. We suggest that solar variability does not explain decadal to centennial scale SST variability in reconstructions from the southwest tropical Pacific. Our SST reconstruction covaries with the Southern Hemisphere Pacific decadal oscillation 5 and the South Pacific decadal oscillation 6 , from which SST anomalies in the southwest Pacific are linked to precipitation anomalies in the western tropical Pacific 6 . We find that decadal scale SST variability has changed in strength and periodicity after 1893, suggesting a shift in natural variability for this location.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) encompasses the heaviest rain belt on the Earth. Few direct long-term records, especially in the Pacific, limit our understanding of long-term natural variability for predicting future ITCZ migration. Here we present a tropical precipitation record from the Southern Hemisphere covering the past 282,000 years, inferred from a marine sedimentary sequence collected off the eastern coast of Papua New Guinea. Unlike the precession paradigm expressed in its East Asian counterpart, our record shows that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. The obliquity forcing could be primarily delivered by a cross-hemispherical thermal/pressure contrast, resulting from the asymmetric continental configuration between Asia and Australia in a coupled East Asian–Australian circulation system. Our finding suggests that the obliquity forcing may play a more important role in global hydroclimate cycles than previously thought.