Rigorous science that produces reliable knowledge is critical to wildlife management because it increases accurate understanding of the natural world and informs management decisions effectively. Application of a rigorous scientific method based on hypothesis testing minimizes unreliable knowledge produced by research. To evaluate the prevalence of scientific rigor in wildlife research, we examined 24 issues of the Journal of Wildlife Management from August 2013 through July 2016. We found 43.9% of studies did not state or imply a priori hypotheses, which are necessary to produce reliable knowledge. We posit that this is due, at least in part, to a lack of common understanding of what rigorous science entails, how it produces more reliable knowledge than other forms of interpreting observations, and how research should be designed to maximize inferential strength and usefulness of application. Current primary literature does not provide succinct explanations of the logic behind a rigorous scientific method or readily applicable guidance for employing it, particularly in wildlife biology; we therefore synthesized an overview of the history, philosophy, and logic that define scientific rigor for biological studies. A rigorous scientific method includes 1) generating a research question from theory and prior observations, 2) developing hypotheses (i.e., plausible biological answers to the question), 3) formulating predictions (i.e., facts that must be true if the hypothesis is true), 4) designing and implementing research to collect data potentially consistent with predictions, 5) evaluating whether predictions are consistent with collected data, and 6) drawing inferences based on the evaluation. Explicitly testing a priori hypotheses reduces overall uncertainty by reducing the number of plausible biological explanations to only those that are logically well supported. Such research also draws inferences that are robust to idiosyncratic observations and unavoidable human biases. Offering only post hoc interpretations of statistical patterns (i.e., a posteriori hypotheses) adds to uncertainty because it increases the number of plausible biological explanations without determining which have the greatest support. Further, post hoc interpretations are strongly subject to human biases. Testing hypotheses maximizes the credibility of research findings, makes the strongest contributions to theory and management, and improves reproducibility of research. Management decisions based on rigorous research are most likely to result in effective conservation of wildlife resources. © 2018 The Wildlife Society.
Migratory ungulates are thought to be declining globally because their dependence on large landscapes renders them highly vulnerable to environmental change. Yet recent studies reveal that many ungulate species can adjust their migration propensity in response to changing environmental conditions to potentially improve population persistence. In addition to the question of whether to migrate, decisions of where and when to migrate appear equally fundamental to individual migration tactics, but these three dimensions of plasticity have rarely been explored together. Here, we expand the concept of migratory plasticity beyond individual switches in migration propensity to also include spatial and temporal adjustments to migration patterns. We develop a novel typological framework that delineates every potential change type within the three dimensions, then use this framework to guide a literature review. We discuss broad patterns in migratory plasticity, potential drivers of migration change, and research gaps in the current understanding of this trait. Our result reveals 127 migration change events in direct response to natural and human-induced environmental changes across 27 ungulate species. Species that appeared in multiple studies showed multiple types of change, with some exhibiting the full spectrum of migratory plasticity. This result highlights that multidimensional migratory plasticity is pervasive in ungulates, even as the manifestation of plasticity varies case by case. However, studies thus far have rarely been able to determine the fitness outcomes of different types of migration change, likely due to the scarcity of long-term individual-based demographic monitoring as well as measurements encompassing a full behavioral continuum and environmental gradient for any given species. Recognizing and documenting the full spectrum of migratory plasticity marks the first step for the field of migration ecology to employ quantitative methods, such as reaction norms, to predict migration change along environmental gradients. Closer monitoring for changes in migratory propensity, routes, and timing may improve the efficacy of conservation strategies and management actions in a rapidly changing world.
Ungulates typically migrate to maximize nutritional intake when forage varies seasonally. In western North America, however, increasing numbers of ungulates reside on low‐elevation winter range year‐round rather than migrating. These residents often occupy irrigated agricultural areas, but it is not known whether the nutrition provided by agricultural land exceeds that gained by migration. We evaluated the nutrition available to a partially migratory population of elk (Cervus canadensis) in west‐central Montana where some individuals summered on low‐elevation agricultural lands, whereas others summered on traditional higher‐elevation ranges. We sampled elk forage plants from ground plots and adult female elk movements from global positioning system (GPS) collar locations during late summer for 2 years. We tested for differences in the nutrition provided by 11 vegetative communities commonly available to elk in the Rocky Mountains and the nutrition available in areas used by individuals whose behaviors ranged from residency to migration. We found the nutrition available to elk decreased along the continuum from resident to migratory behavior, contrary to our hypothesis that all behaviors would provide access to equivalent forage quality. The relatively small summer home ranges of migrants suggest other factors (e.g., decreased competition) may compensate for their lower nutritional value, because the size of a home range is often inversely related to its fitness benefits. We found irrigated agriculture provided the highest forage quality in low elevations, but recently burned (1–6 yr prior) dry forests at higher elevations provided forage quality approximately equivalent to that of irrigated agriculture. Excluding elk from irrigated agricultural areas should therefore reduce nutritional incentives for elk to reside at low elevations year‐round. Additionally, fire in higher‐elevation dry forests may temporarily increase forage quality for elk and improve nutritional benefits of migratory behavior. Our results indicate land management practices can affect nutritionally mediated fitness benefits of differing behaviors in partially migratory populations of ungulates. © 2018 The Wildlife Society.
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die‐offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual‐based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six‐week delay in snow‐onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter‐onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view.
During late summer and fall, elk (Cervus canadensis) need access to adequate nutrition to support physiological requirements for reproduction and overwinter survival. The archery hunting season often occurs during this period and can affect distributions of elk as they seek areas that minimize perceived harvest risk. Areas that confer lower harvest risk may provide relatively low-value nutrition, resulting in a potential tradeoff between minimizing risk and accessing adequate forage. We used radio-collar data collected from female elk during late summer and fall (Aug-Oct) and estimated resource selection models to evaluate the extent of this potential risk-nutrition tradeoff. To evaluate if elk exposed to a greater hunting risk altered selection for forage resources, we assessed the relationship between individuals' selection coefficients for forage and the proportion of their late-summer-fall home range accessible to hunters (our metric of hunting risk). Our results indicate that during the archery season, elk with higher-risk home ranges selected more strongly for areas farther from motorized routes than elk with lower-risk home ranges. Regardless of the level of risk, however, elk maintained or increased selection for areas with higher forage quality, suggesting that elk did not compromise access to nutritional resources during the archery season. Elk with higher-risk home ranges were also exposed to the poorest nutrition and increased their selection for areas with higher forage quality more strongly than elk with lower-risk home ranges during the hunting season. Elk with lower-risk home ranges had access to the highest nutrition, which may be due to the availability of concentrated sources of high-quality forage from irrigated agricultural areas on private lands that restricted hunter access. Resource agencies interested in encouraging elk to remain on public lands during the hunting seasons might consider closing motorized travel during the archery season to increase security on public lands, limiting hunter pressure on public lands, improving forage quality on public lands, and working with private land owners to enhance hunter accessibility and restrict elk access to high-quality forage resources. Ó 2019 The Wildlife Society.
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