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Background To stem the HIV epidemic among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), prevention programs must target services towards those most at risk for HIV. This paper investigates approaches to estimate HIV risk and map the spatial heterogeneity of at-risk populations in three countries: Eswatini, Haiti and Mozambique. Methods We analyzed HIV biomarker and risk factor data from recent population-based household surveys. We characterized risk using three approaches: complementary log-log regression, latent class analysis (LCA), and presence of at least one risk factor. We calculated the proportion and 95 percent confidence intervals of HIV-negative AGYW at risk across the three methods and employed Chi-square tests to investigate associations between risk classification and HIV status. Using geolocated survey data at enumeration clusters and high-resolution satellite imagery, we applied algorithms to predict the number and proportion of at-risk AGYW at hyperlocal levels. Results The any-risk approach yielded the highest proportion of at-risk and HIV-negative AGYW across five-year age bands: 26%-49% in Eswatini, 52%-67% in Haiti, and 32%-84% in Mozambique. Using LCA, between 8%-16% of AGYW in Eswatini, 37%-62% in Haiti, and 56%-80% in Mozambique belonged to a high vulnerability profile. In Haiti and Mozambique, the regression-based profile yielded the lowest estimate of at-risk AGYW. In general, AGYW characterized as “at risk” across the three methods had significantly higher odds of HIV infection. Hyperlocal maps indicated high levels of spatial heterogeneity in HIV risk prevalence and population density of at-risk AGYW within countries. Conclusion Characterizing risk among AGYW can help HIV prevention programs better understand the differential effect of multiple risk factors, facilitate early identification of high-risk AGYW, and design tailored interventions. Hyperlocal mapping of these at-risk populations can help program planners target prevention interventions to geographic areas with populations at greatest risk for HIV to achieve maximal impact on HIV incidence reduction.

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