Background
Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac rhythm abnormality, is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditures. Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with the risk of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and mortality.
Methods and Results
The relation between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and AF was studied in 5,445 Cardiovascular Health Study participants, using relative risk regression for predicting prevalent AF, and Cox proportional hazards for predicting incident AF. NT-proBNP levels were strongly associated with prevalent AF, with an unadjusted prevalence ratio of 128 for the highest quintile (95%CI 17.9, 913.3, p< 0.001); and adjusted prevalence ratio of 147 for the highest quintile (95% CI 20.4, 1064.3, p<0.001) compared to the lowest. After a median follow up of 10 years (maximum of 16 years), there were 1,126 cases of incident AF (a rate of 2.2 per 100 person years). NT-proBNP was highly predictive of incident AF with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 5.2 (95% CI 4.3, 6.4, p < 0.001) for the development of AF for the highest quintile compared to the lowest; for the same contrast, NT-proBNP remained the strongest predictor of incident AF after adjustment for an extensive number of covariates, including age, sex, medication use, blood pressure, echocardiographic parameters, diabetes, and heart failure; with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.0 (CI 3.2, 5.0, p< 0.001).
Conclusions
In a community based population of older adults, NT-pro BNP was a remarkable predictor of incident AF, independent of any other previously described risk factor.