Despite decades of work on climate change biology, the scientific community remains uncertain about where and when most species distributions will respond to altered climates. A major barrier is the spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled. Using a meta-analysis of published literature, we show that grid lengths in species distribution models are, on average, ca. 10 000-fold larger than the animals they study, and ca. 1000-fold larger than the plants they study. And the gap is even worse than these ratios indicate, as most work has focused on organisms that are significantly biased toward large size. This mismatch is problematic because organisms do not experience climate on coarse scales. Rather, they live in microclimates, which can be highly heterogeneous and strongly divergent from surrounding macroclimates. Bridging the spatial gap should be a high priority for research and will require gathering climate data at finer scales, developing better methods for downscaling environmental data to microclimates, and improving our statistical understanding of variation at finer scales. Interdisciplinary collaborations (including ecologists, engineers, climatologists, meteorologists, statisticians, and geographers) will be key to bridging the gap, and ultimately to providing scientifically grounded data and recommendations to conservation biologists and policy makers.

Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change.

SUMMARYVirtually all aspects of insect biology are affected by body temperature, and many taxa have evolved sophisticated temperaturecontrol mechanisms. All insects, however, begin life as eggs and lack the ability to thermoregulate. Eggs laid on leaves experience a thermal environment, and thus a body temperature, that is strongly influenced by the leaves themselves. Because plants can maintain leaf temperatures that differ from ambient, e.g. by evapotranspiration, plant hosts may protect eggs from extreme ambient temperatures. We examined the degree to which leaves buffer ambient thermal variation and whether that buffering benefits leaf-associated insect eggs. In particular, we: (1) measured temperature variation at oviposition sites in the field, (2) manipulated temperatures in the laboratory to determine the effect of different thermal conditions on embryo development time and survival, and (3) tested embryonic metabolic rates over increasing temperatures. Our results show that Datura wrightii leaves buffer Manduca sexta eggs from fatally high ambient temperatures in the southwestern USA. Moreover, small differences in temperature profiles among leaves can cause large variation in egg metabolic rate and development time. Specifically, large leaves were hotter than small leaves during the day, reaching temperatures that are stressfully high for eggs. This study provides the first mechanistic demonstration of how this type of leaf-constructed thermal refuge interacts with egg physiology.