Social Network Analysis has emerged as a key paradigm in modern sociology, technology, and information sciences. The paradigm stems from the view that the attributes of an individual in a network are less important than their ties (relationships) with other individuals in the network. Exploring the nature and strength of these ties can help understand the structure and dynamics of social networks and explain real-world phenomena, ranging from organizational efficiency to the spread of information and disease.In this paper, we examine the communication patterns of millions of mobile phone users, allowing us to study the underlying social network in a large-scale communication network. Our primary goal is to address the role of social ties in the formation and growth of groups, or communities, in a mobile network. In particular, we study the evolution of churners in an operator's network spanning over a period of four months. Our analysis explores the propensity of a subscriber to churn out of a service provider's network depending on the number of ties (friends) that have already churned. Based on our findings, we propose a spreading activation-based technique that predicts potential churners by examining the current set of churners and their underlying social network. The efficiency of the prediction is expressed as a lift curve, which indicates the fraction of all churners that can be caught when a certain fraction of subscribers were contacted.
With ever growing competition in telecommunications markets, operators have to increasingly rely on business intelligence to offer the right incentives to their customers. Toward this end, existing approaches have almost solely focussed on the individual behaviour of customers. Call graphs, that is, graphs induced by people calling each other, can allow telecom operators to better understand the interaction behaviour of their customers, and potentially provide major insights for designing effective incentives.In this paper, we use the Call Detail Records of a mobile operator from four geographically disparate regions to construct call graphs, and analyse their structural properties. Our findings provide business insights and help devise strategies for Mobile Telecom operators. Another goal of this paper is to identify the shape of such graphs. In order to do so, we extend the well-known reachability analysis approach with some of our own techniques to reveal the shape of such massive graphs. Based on our analysis, we introduce the Treasure-Hunt model to describe the shape of mobile call graphs. The proposed techniques are general enough for analysing any large graph. Finally, how well the proposed model captures the shape of other mobile call graphs needs to be the subject of future studies.
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