Biodiesel is a diesel equivalent fuel produced from biological feed stocks, acting as a substitute for petroleum or fossil diesel. Biodiesel production in Thailand began in 2005, with prices stabilizing after 2008. Biodiesel, along with other biofuels, plays a role in Thailand’s Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP). The purpose of this study is to examine factors in the Thai biodiesel prices (2009-2014). The study assessed factors in downstream biodiesel prices at consumer locations like gas stations. The price factors assessed in the study included ex-refinery prices, excise taxes, municipal taxes, oil fund contributions, energy conservation fund conributions, marketing margin and exchange rate (USD). Regression results showed that all of these factors were significant (r2 = 0.867). The implication of the study is that while most of the retail price of biodiesel in Thailand is attributable to cost factors, there is some unexplained variance in price. This offers an opportunity for future research.
Currently, the Thailand government is promoting biofuel, especially the producer of biodiesel. Starting from 2015, the Ministry of Energy of Thailand has determined that the palm oil remaining from domestic consumption is 14 million liters per day in 2036. Forecasting biodiesel prices are most important since biodiesel price volatility affects renewable energy consumption in the future. This paper presents the biodiesel prices in Thailand with the time series decomposition method. The source of time series data comes from the energy policy and planning office, Ministry of Energy of Thailand, monthly average retail price of regular-grade biodiesel, during 2007-2016, 120 months in total. This study aims to use forecasting methods to deter biodiesel prices in Thailand over the next 20 years, from 2017 to 2036. This solution starts with decomposing data into a trend, a cycle, seasonal, and any irregular components and then calculates biodiesel prices with a multiplicative model. The model shows a continuous decreasing trend of biodiesel prices from around 27.50 to 25.84 THB/liter in 2017 to 22.36 THB/liter in 2036. Moreover, the forecasting method has the least mean absolute present error (MAPE) at 0.24651.
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