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We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010-2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ∼60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

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We developed a solar flare prediction model using a deep neural network (DNN), named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). The model can calculate the probability of flares occurring in the following 24 h in each active region, which is used to determine the most likely maximum classes of flares via a binary classification (e.g., ≥M class versus

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Fine particulate matter () has a considerable impact on human health, the environment and climate change. It is estimated that with better predictions, US$9 billion can be saved over a 10-year period in the USA (State of the science fact sheet air quality. http://www.noaa.gov/factsheets/new, 2012). Therefore, it is crucial to keep developing models and systems that can accurately predict the concentration of major air pollutants. In this paper, our target is to predict concentration in Japan using environmental monitoring data obtained from physical sensors with improved accuracy over the currently employed prediction models. To do so, we propose a deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) that is enhanced with a novel pre-training method using auto-encoder especially designed for time series prediction. Additionally, sensors selection is performed within DRNN without harming the accuracy of the predictions by taking advantage of the sparsity found in the network. The numerical experiments show that DRNN with our proposed pre-training method is superior than when using a canonical and a state-of-the-art auto-encoder training method when applied to time series prediction. The experiments confirm that when compared against the prediction system VENUS (National Institute for Environmental Studies. Visual Atmospheric Environment Utility System. http://envgis5.nies.go.jp/osenyosoku/, 2014), our technique improves the accuracy of concentration level predictions that are being reported in Japan.

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Please cite this article in press as: L. Iocchi et al., ROBOCUP@HOME: Analysis and results of evolving competitions for domestic and service robots, Artificial Intelligence (2015), http://dx. AbstractScientific competitions are becoming more common in many research areas of artificial intelligence and robotics, since they provide a shared testbed for comparing different solutions and enable the exchange of research results. Moreover, they are interesting for general audiences and industries. Currently, many major research areas in artificial intelligence and robotics are organizing multiple-year competitions that are typically associated with scientific conferences.One important aspect of such competitions is that they are organized for many years. This introduces a temporal evolution that is interesting to analyze. However, the problem of evaluating a competition over many years remains unaddressed. We believe that this issue is critical to properly fuel changes over the years and measure the results of these decisions. Therefore, this article focuses on the analysis and the results of evolving competitions.In this article, we present the RoboCup@Home competition, which is the largest worldwide competition for domestic service robots, and evaluate its progress over the past seven years. We show how the definition of a proper scoring system allows for desired functionalities to be related to tasks and how the resulting analysis fuels subsequent changes to achieve general and robust solutions implemented by the teams. Our results show not only the steadily increasing complexity of the tasks that RoboCup@Home robots can solve but also the increased performance for all of the functionalities addressed in the competition.We believe that the methodology used in RoboCup@Home for evaluating competition advances and for stimulating changes can be applied and extended to other robotic competitions as well as to multi-year research projects involving Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.