Weaving industry is one of the creative industries based on local wisdom of Bali, need to be developed with the concept of modern entrepreneurship (orange economy). Regional economic development strategies need to take into account the dynamics of local community life or social capital in addition to the role of government and other physical capital, in order to improve the performance of weaving industry in Jembrana regency, Bali. Based on empirical theory and facts, this study aims to analyze how the direct and indirect influence of the role of government, social capital and business performance on and subjective wellbeing on the business actors of weaving industry in Jembrana, Bali. Through the modeling of the resulting structural equations is studied: (1) the direct influence of the government's role on business performance and subjective well-being; (2) the direct influence of social capital on business performance and subjective wellbeing; (3) the direct impact of business performance on subjective well-being; (4) the indirect and total influence of the government's role on subordinate welfare mediated by business performance; and (5) the indirect and total social capital influences on subjective well-being mediated by business performance. Based on surveys and structured interviews on 70 business actors of weaving industry in Jembrana District, Bali through data analysis techniques using SEM-PLS with the help of Smart PLS 3.0 software, in the business actors weaving industry found that: (1) directly the role of government have positive and significant (2) direct social capital has a positive and significant effect on business performance, but not significant to subjective wellbeing, (3) directly the business performance have a positive and significant effect on subjective wellbeing, (4) the role of the government indirectly has a positive but insignificant effect on subjective wellbeing, but through full mediation of business performance, the role of the government has a positive and significant effect on subjective wellbeing, and (5) social capital indirectly has a positive and significant effect on the subjective achievement, so totally through the full mediation of business performance, social capital has a positive and significant impact on subjective wellbeing although it directly does not have a significant effect.

Temperature is an important factor in the production of agricultural commodities. For this reason, goverments needs to protect farmers in order to continue their farming. Climate-based agricultural insurance is an alternative to climate-related risk management. Insurance premium is given when the temperature index lower than the pre determined trigger index. The purpose of this study is to determine the stages and assumptions in determining the value of agricultural insurance premiums based on surface temperature index on cocoa commodities using the method of burn analysis. The temperature index was determined using the burn analysis method with the temperature as the climate parameter. Trigger values ??are determined based on long run times. In this paper, the result is that when the temperature index lower than the determined trigger value, trigger payments as much as Rp.10.931.960,40 / Ha based on trigger index as many 26.145 ° C, so amount of premium payment equals Rp 215.776.

Agricultural insurance is insurance in the agricultural sector which is relatively new introduced in Indonesia. Agricultural insurance is based on a rainfall index.  It is a risk management tool that is relatively new in Indonesia. This study was purposed to determine the steps required in determining the value of the rainfall index on agricultural insurance and calculating the contract value of agricultural insurance which had to be paid on the agricultural insurance that is on rainfall index-based by using Black-Scholes method. The result of this research are if the amount of rainfall was 130,4 mm so the amount of premium payment equals Rp. 60.694, as well as if the amount of high rainfall was 179,9  mm so the amount of premium payment equals Rp.902.760.

Contract options are the most important part of an investment strategy. An option is a contract that entitles the owner or holder to sell an asset on a designated maturity date. A binary or asset-or-nothing option is an option in which the option holder will perform or not the option. There are many methods used in determining the option contract value, one of this is the Monte Carlo Quasi method of the Faure random. The purpose of this study is to determine the value of binary type option contract using the Quasi Monte Carlo method of the Faure random and compare with the Monte Carlo method. The results of this study indicate that the option contract calculated by the Monte Carlo Quasi method results in a more fair value. Monte Carlo method simulation 10.000 generate  standard error is 0.9316 and the option convergence at 18.9144. While Quasi Monte Carlo simulation  3000 generate standard error is 0.09091 and the option convergence at 18.8203. This show  the  Quasi Monte Carlo method reaches a faster convergent of Monte Carlo method.

Investing among investors is an exciting activity to gain profit in the financial world. The development of investment in the financial world affects the number of alternative investment instruments that can be offered to investors in the capital market. The management of instruments in finance depends on the accuracy of forecasting of variables for example volatility. Volatility is a statistic of the degree of price variation in one period to the next which is expressed by ?. Volatility values can be estimated using Implied Volatility. Implied Volatility is the volatility used in determining the price of European options obtained by equalizing the price of the theoretical options, the price obtained from the Black-Scholes model, with the option price in the market. In this research will discuss how to estimate Implied Volatility value using the option obtained from simulation with Monte Carlo.

The purpose of this research is to compare the selling price of down and out barrier option when the prices are simulated by the Antithetic Variate Monte Carlo and the standar Monte Carlo. Barrier options are path dependent options and the payoff depend on whether the underlying asset price touched the barrier or not during the life of the option. In this research, we conducted simulations against the closing price of the shares of PT Adhi Karya using Standard Monte Carlo simulation and the Monte Carlo-Antithetic Variate simulation. After the simulation, we obtained that the option prices using Antithetic Variate produces a cheaper price than the standar one. We also found that the analytic solution has a smaller error on its confidence interval compare to the Monte Carlo Standar.

No abstract

Copula is already widely used in financial assets, especially in risk management. It is due to the ability of copula, to capture the nonlinear dependence structure on multivariate assets. In addition, using copula function doesn't require the assumption of normal distribution. There fore it is suitable to be applied to financial data. To manage a risk the necessary measurement tools can help mitigate the risks. One measure that can be used to measure risk is Value at Risk (VaR). Although VaR is very popular, it has several weaknesses. To overcome the weakness in VaR, an alternative risk measure called CVaR can be used. The porpose of this study is to estimate CVaR using Gaussian copula. The data we used are the closing price of Facebook and Twitter stocks. The results from the calculation using 90% confidence level showed that the risk that may be experienced is at 4,7%, for 95% confidence level it is at 6,1%, and for 99% confidence level it is at 10,6%.