Background and objectives: The incidence of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) is increasing, while that of tuberculosis (TB) is decreasing in many industrialized countries, including Japan. However, the long-term evaluation of clinico-epidemiological features of NTM-PD in relation to TB are limited. We aimed to clarify the long-term changes in the epidemiology and clinical features of NTM-PD in relation to those of TB at a nationally-designated TB center in Japan. Methods: We reviewed all mycobacterial examination records at Fukujuji Hospital between 2006 and 2016. Cases of NTM-PD were defined according to the 2007 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Disease Society of America microbiologic criteria. The current characteristics of Mycobacterium avium complex pulmonary disease (MAC-PD) were compared with those in the 1980s and circa 2000. Results: We identified a total of 3,546 pulmonary TB cases and 2,155 NTM-PD cases. While the annual number of incident pulmonary TB cases remained stable over the study period (P = 0.59), that of NTM-PD cases increased significantly from 165 to 278 (P < 0.01). The mean age of pulmonary TB cases increased from 59.7 ± 16.3 to 66.2 ± 21.7 years, whereas that of NTM-PD cases remained unchanged. Regarding the age distribution, the greatest increases were observed in patients over 75 years for TB and in patients 50-74 years for NTM. The most common causative organism for NTM was Mycobacterium avium complex (87.3%), M. abscessus complex (5.5%) and M. kansasii (3.9%). Among patients with MAC-PD, the proportion of the nodular bronchiectatic (NB) form increased significantly from 60.0% to 84.4% between circa 2000 and 2016 (P < 0.01). Significant increases in the NB form were observed in both males (33.3%-70.7%, P < 0.01) and females (71.3%-89.2%, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The annual number of incident NTM-PD cases increased markedly. In contrast to patients with TB, the mean age of new NTM-PD patients did not increase in the last 10 years. Among MAC-PD patients, the proportions accounted for by the NB form increased significantly in both sexes.

BackgroundPatients with Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) lung disease (LD) have a heterogeneous prognosis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic scoring model for these patients using independent risk factors for survival.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the data of patients with MAC-LD from two hospitals (cohort 1, n = 368; cohort 2, n = 118). Cohort 1 was evaluated using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent risk factors for overall survival (OS). A prognostic scoring model composed of these factors was developed, and cohort 1 was stratified into three groups according to risk using the log-rank test. Finally, the prognostic scoring model was validated using the data of cohort 2.ResultsSeven independent risk factors for OS were selected from cohort 1, including the male sex, age ≥ 70 years, the presence of a malignancy, body mass index <18.5 kg/m2, lymphocyte count <1000 cells/μL, serum albumin levels <3.5 g/dL, and fibrocavitary disease. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the prognostic scoring model were 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.80 − 0.89] for cohort 1 and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75 − 0.92) for cohort 2. The 5-year OS rates of patients stratified into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 97.6, 76.6, and 30.8%, respectively (P < 0.001), in cohort 1, and 97.2, 82.3, and 45.4%, respectively (P < 0.001), in cohort 2.ConclusionsThis study is the first to develop and validate a prognostic scoring model for patients with MAC-LD. This model may prove useful in clinical settings and practical in estimating the prognosis.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2544-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) is associated with mortality in patients with Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease (MAC-LD). An Aspergillus-positive respiratory specimen often reflects colonization, and thus the clinical significance of Aspergillus isolation in MAC-LD patients is not well understood. The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of MAC-LD patients in whom Aspergillus was isolated from respiratory specimens. We performed a retrospective review of the medical records of 329 MAC-LD patients. We compared the characteristics and mortality rates between patients with Aspergillus isolation and those without. All Aspergillus species detected from respiratory specimens within the follow-up period were reviewed. Aspergillus was detected in 40 (12.2%) of the 329 patients. There were no significant differences in the clinical characteristics and mortality rates between patients with and without Aspergillus isolation. Among the 40 patients with Aspergillus isolation, 9 (22.5%) developed CPA. CPA was most often caused by A. fumigatus. In the 40 Aspergillus-positive patients, patients with A. fumigatus isolation had a significantly higher mortality rate than those without (P < 0.001). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed older age (P = 0.050), presence of respiratory comorbidities (P = 0.008), hypoalbuminemia (P < 0.001), and isolation of A. fumigatus (P = 0.005) to be prognostic factors for mortality in MAC-LD patients. There was no significant difference in the mortality rates between patients with Aspergillus isolation and those without. However, isolation of A. fumigatus may be associated with poor prognosis in MAC-LD patients.

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