Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (∼42 000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (∼5200 since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.

Nepal's quake-driven landslide hazards Large earthquakes can trigger dangerous landslides across a wide geographic region. The 2015 M w 7.8 Gorhka earthquake near Kathmandu, Nepal, was no exception. Kargal et al. used remote observations to compile a massive catalog of triggered debris flows. The satellite-based observations came from a rapid response team assisting the disaster relief effort. Schwanghart et al. show that Kathmandu escaped the historically catastrophic landslides associated with earthquakes in 1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. near Nepal's second largest city, Pokhara. These two studies underscore the importance of determining slope stability in mountainous, earthquake-prone regions. Science , this issue p. 10.1126/science.aac8353 ; see also p. 147

The characteristics and sensitivities of a cold-based glacier on the Tibetan Plateau, where the summer monsoon provides most of the mass input to glaciers, are discussed using an energy-balance model incorporating the process of water refreezing. The model accurately represents the observational results related to the mass balance of Xiao Dongkemadi glacier on the central plateau during 1992/93. Our data revealed that the mass balance of cold glaciers cannot simply be described by the surface mass/heat balances, because about 20% of infiltrated water is refrozen and thus does not run off from the glacier. Model calculations demonstrate that glaciers in an arid environment can maintain their mass since the monsoon provides precipitation during the melting season. Snowfall in summer keeps surface albedo high and largely restrains ablation. Nevertheless, the calculations also make clear that glaciers on the plateau are more vulnerable than those of other regions because of summer accumulation. In the monsoon climate, warming would cause not only a decrease in accumulation, but also a drastic increase in ablation in combination with surface-albedo lowering. Therefore, although glaciers on and around the plateau can be sustained by summer accumulation, they are more vulnerable to warming than winter-accumulation-type glaciers.

We describe volumetric changes in three benchmark glaciers in the Nepal Himalayas on which observations have been made since the 1970s. Compared with the global mean of glacier mass balance, the Himalayan glaciers showed rapid wastage in the 1970s-1990s, but similar wastage in the last decade. In the last decade, a glacier in an arid climate showed negative but suppressed mass balance compared with the period 1970s-1990s, whereas two glaciers in a humid climate showed accelerated wastage. A mass balance model with downscaled gridded datasets depicts the fate of the observed glaciers. We also show a spatially heterogeneous distribution of glacier wastage in the Asian highlands, even under the presentday climate warming.climate change | equilibrium line altitude A recent study (1) has highlighted gross inadequacies both in our knowledge of important changes occurring to Himalayan glaciers and in two recent reports that have alternately overestimated (2) and seriously underestimated (3) the pace of shrinkage of Himalayan glaciers without, in either report (2, 3), offering a compelling basis. However, the rate at which Himalayan glaciers are shrinking remains poorly constrained because ground-based measurements are hampered by the high altitude and remoteness of the region. This lack of observational data has given rise to large uncertainties in both observation-based (4-6) and simulation-based (7-9) projections of global sea-level rise. These studies relied on relationships established for well-studied glaciers under a Euro-American climate. However, this approach may be inaccurate because the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a strong effect on the surface albedo and thus on glacier melt in the monsoonal Asian region (10).In addition, much of the debate on the fate of Himalayan glaciers has missed an important consideration of the height and trend of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA), which divides the glacier into areas of ablation and accumulation (11). The ELA is important because, for example, if the glacier has no accumulation area for a period because the ELA is located above the glacier, the glacier is destined to disappear over time (12). Unfortunately, observations of the mass balance and ELA of Himalayan glaciers have been made only in recent years (13,14).To address these problems, in the present study we update the elevation data for Himalayan benchmark glaciers, providing information for the past decades. We calculate changes in the mass balance and ELA of the three benchmark glaciers using an energy-mass balance model with downscaled gridded climate datasets, in order to describe the state and fate of glaciers. Further calculations are performed to assess the spatial representativeness of the observation-based results.