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Breeders have two non-exclusive strategic investment options for increasing smallholder farmers’ and consumers’ livelihoods through genetic improvement of crop varieties: (i) enhancing productivity; and (ii) enhancing value and market access. New Rice for Africa (NERICA) varieties with superior agronomic characteristics were bred and introduced in various African countries in the early 2000s. Two decades later, drought tolerant NERICA4 is among the popular upland rice varieties grown across Africa. We analyze market evidence for NERICA4 from Uganda in 2011, i.e. well before it massively reached urban markets, where it is currently commingled with standard rice. We then compare the breeding priorities that would have ensued from the 2011 market evidence with the reality a decade later. Non-hypothetical auction experiments with consumers were conducted in urban Uganda in 2011 to predict potential market share and value of non-fragrant NERICA4 and fragrant NERICA1, relative to two market standards, i.e. non-fragrant Kaiso, and Supa, the most popular fragrant rice variety in the region. Average consumer bids positioned the two NERICAs between both market standards. Whereas NERICA1 easily outcompeted NERICA4 and Kaiso in the non-fragrant rice category, it failed to compete with Supa in the fragrant category. The 2011 market evidence would have suggested breeders prioritize investment in breeding programs for fragrant NERICAs to help smallholders gain access to high-value markets and expand consumers’ choice with cheaper fragrant rice alternatives. However, the popularity of NERICA4 relative to NERICA1 in farmers’ fields seems to suggest that agronomic genetic gains may have outweighed market traits such as fragrance.

Rice breeding priorities in Africa often focus on agronomic gains. However, being a net importer of rice, the continent’s varietal replacement success also crucially hinges on new varieties’ market competitiveness vis-à-vis imports. Markets have been profoundly shaped by cultural and colonial heritage. Indigenous preferences for African rice can be traced back to ancient rice domestication and have been subsequently influenced by Asian rice import standards as a result of colonial import substitution policies. New Rice for Africa (NERICA) crosses between African and Asian rice species have the potential to reconcile these dual indigenous/import preferences, but little is known about their market competitiveness. We use auction market data to assess the intrinsic and extrinsic consumer value of NERICA in The Gambia relative to two market standards: branded, Asian rice imports and the most popular locally grown Asian rice variety. We categorize rice consumers into four market segments, based on their heritage as evidenced by their preferences and genealogical lineages. NERICA outperforms both Asian rice standards in terms of market competitiveness, and its value is further reinforced by colonial heritage and labeling, but somewhat weakened by cultural heritage. Consumers were found to pay price premiums for NERICA in the range of 5% to 22% relative to Asian rice imports, with the highest premiums offered by consumers with colonial heritage, representing 86% of the sample. Maintaining and expanding this market will require breeders to incorporate trait mixes that reconcile agronomic gains and consumer preferences induced by cultural and colonial heritage.