Abstract. Reduction of water levels during river floods is key in preventing damage and loss of life. Computer models are used to design ways to achieve this and assist in the decision-making process. However, the predictions of computer models are inherently uncertain, and it is currently unknown to what extent that uncertainty affects predictions of the effect of flood mitigation strategies. In this study, we quantify the uncertainty of flood mitigation interventions on the Dutch River Waal, based on 39 different sources of uncertainty and 12 intervention designs. The aim of each intervention is to reduce flood water levels. Our objective is to investigate the uncertainty of model predictions of intervention effect and to explore relationships that may aid in decision-making. We identified the relative uncertainty, defined as the ratio between the confidence interval and the expected effect, as a useful metric to compare uncertainty between different interventions. Using this metric, we show that intervention effect uncertainty behaves like a traditional backwater curve with an approximately constant relative uncertainty value. In general, we observe that uncertainty scales with effect: high flood level decreases have high uncertainty, and, conversely, small effects are accompanied by small uncertainties. However, different interventions with the same expected effect do not necessarily have the same uncertainty. For example, our results show that the large-scale but relatively ineffective intervention of floodplain smoothing by removing vegetation has much higher uncertainty compared to alternative options. Finally, we show how a level of acceptable uncertainty can be defined and how this can affect the design of interventions. In general, we conclude that the uncertainty of model predictions is not large enough to invalidate model-based intervention design, nor small enough to neglect altogether. Instead, uncertainty information is valuable in the selection of alternative interventions.

River deltas commonly have a heterogeneous substratum of alternating peat, clay and sand deposits. This has important consequences for the river bed development and in particular for scour hole formation. When the substratum consists of an erosion resistant top layer, erosion is retarded. Upon breaking through a resistant top layer and reaching an underlying layer with higher erodibilty, deep scour holes may form within a short amount of time. The unpredictability and fast development of these scour holes makes them difficult to manage, particularly where the stability of dikes and infrastructure is at stake. In this paper we determine how subsurface lithology controls the bed elevation in net incising river branches, particularly focusing on scour hole initiation, growth rate, and direction. For this, the Rhine-Meuse Estuary forms an ideal study site, as over 100 scour holes have been identified in this area, and over 40 years of bed level data and thousands of core descriptions are available. It is shown that the subsurface lithology plays a crucial role in the emergence, shape, and evolution of scour holes. Although most scour holes follow the characteristic exponential development of fast initial growth and slower final growth, strong temporal variations are observed, with sudden growth rates of several meters per year in depth and tens of meters in extent. In addition, we relate the characteristic build-up of the subsurface lithology to specific geometric characteristics of scour holes, like large elongated expanding scour holes or confined scour holes with steep slopes. As river deltas commonly have a heterogeneous substratum and often face channel bed erosion, the observations likely apply to many delta rivers. These findings call for thorough knowledge of the subsurface lithology, as without it, scour hole development is hard to predict and can lead to sudden failures of nearby infrastructure and flood defence works.

Human interventions to optimise river functions are often contentious, disruptive, and expensive. To analyse the expected impact of an intervention before implementation, decision makers rely on computations with complex physics-based hydraulic models. The outcome of these models is known to be sensitive to uncertain input parameters, but long model runtimes render full probabilistic assessment infeasible with standard computer resources. In this paper we propose an alternative, efficient method for uncertainty quantification for impact analysis that significantly reduces the required number of model runs by using a subsample of a full Monte Carlo ensemble to establish a probabilistic relationship between pre-and post-intervention model outcome. The efficiency of the method depends on the number of interventions, the initial Monte Carlo ensemble size and the desired level of accuracy. For the cases presented here, the computational cost was decreased by 65%.

To accurately predict water levels, river models require an appropriate description of the hydraulic roughness. The bed roughness increases as river dunes grow with increasing discharge and the roughness depends on differences in channel width, bed level and bed sediment. Therefore, we hypothesize that the calibrated main channel roughness coefficient is most sensitive to the discharge and location in longitudinal direction of the river. The roughness is determined by calibrating the Manning coefficient of the main channel in a 1D hydrodynamic model. The River Waal in the Netherlands is used as a case study. Results show that the calibrated roughness is mainly sensitive to discharge. Especially the transition from bankfull to flood stage and effects of floodplain compartmentation are important features to consider in the calibration as these produce more accurate water level predictions. Moreover, the downstream boundary condition also has a large effect on the calibrated roughness values near the boundary.

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