Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) are highly mobile, ecologically-important mesopredators that support multimillion-dollar fisheries along the western Atlantic Ocean. Understanding how blue crabs respond to coastal landscape change is integral to conservation and management, but such insights have been limited to a narrow range of habitats and spatial scales. We examined how local-scale to landscape-scale habitat characteristics and bathymetric features (channels and oceanic inlets) affect the relative abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE) of adult blue crabs across a > 33 km2 seagrass landscape in coastal Virginia, USA. We found that crab CPUE was 1.7 × higher in sparse (versus dense) seagrass, 2.4 × higher at sites farther from (versus nearer to) salt marshes, and unaffected by proximity to oyster reefs. The probability that a trapped crab was female was 5.1 × higher in sparse seagrass and 8 × higher near deep channels. The probability of a female crab being gravid was 2.8 × higher near seagrass meadow edges and 3.3 × higher near deep channels. Moreover, the likelihood of a gravid female having mature eggs was 16 × greater in sparse seagrass and 32 × greater near oceanic inlets. Overall, we discovered that adult blue crab CPUE is influenced by seagrass, salt marsh, and bathymetric features on scales from meters to kilometers, and that habitat associations depend on sex and reproductive stage. Hence, accelerating changes to coastal geomorphology and vegetation will likely alter the abundance and distribution of adult blue crabs, challenging marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Predators can have strong roles in structuring communities defined by foundation species. Accumulating evidence shows that predation on reef-building oysters can be intense and potentially compromise efforts to restore or conserve these globally decimated foundation species. However, understanding the controls on variation in oyster predation strength is impeded by inconsistencies in experimental methodologies. To address this challenge, we conducted the first meta-analysis to quantify the magnitude, uncertainty, and drivers of predator effects on oysters. We synthesized 384 predator-exclusion experiments from 49 peer-reviewed publications over 45 years of study (1977 to 2021). We characterized geographic and temporal patterns in oyster predation experiments, determined the strength of predator effects on oyster mortality and recruitment, and assessed how predation varies with oyster size, environmental conditions, the predator assemblage, and experimental design. Predators caused an average 4.3× increase in oyster mortality and 46% decrease in recruitment. Predation increased with oyster size and varied with predator identity and richness. Unexpectedly, we found no effects of latitude, tidal zone, or tidal range on predation strength. Predator effects differed with experiment type and tethering method, indicating the importance of experimental design and the caution warranted in extrapolating results. Our results quantify the importance of predation for oyster populations and suggest that consideration of the drivers of oyster predation in restoration and conservation planning may hasten recovery of these lost coastal foundation species.

Habitat suitability models have been used for decades to develop spatially explicit predictions of landscape capacity to support populations of target species. As high-resolution remote sensing data are increasingly included in habitat suitability models that inform spatial conservation and restoration decisions, it is essential to validate model predictions with independent, quantitative data collected over sustained time frames. Here, we used data collected from 12 reefs over a 14 yr sampling period to validate a recently developed physical habitat suitability model for intertidal oyster reefs in coastal Virginia, USA. The model used intertidal elevation, water residence time, and fetch to predict the likelihood of suitable conditions for eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica across a coastal landscape, and remotely sensed elevation was the most restrictive parameter in the model. Model validation revealed that adult oyster biomass was on average 1.5 times greater on oyster reefs located in predicted ‘suitable’ habitat relative to reefs located in predicted ‘less suitable’ habitat over the 14 yr sampling period. By validating this model with long-term population data, we highlight the importance of elevation as a driver of sustained intertidal oyster success. These findings extend the validation of habitat suitability models by quantitatively supporting the inclusion of remotely sensed data in habitat suitability models for intertidal species. Our results suggest that future oyster restoration and aquaculture projects could enhance oyster biomass by using habitat suitability models to select optimal site locations.

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