The Antarctic Peninsula belongs to the regions of the Earth that have seen the highest increase in air temperature in the past few decades. The warming is reflected in degradation of the cryospheric system. The impact of climate variability and interactions between the atmosphere and the cryosphere can be studied using numerical atmospheric models. In this study, the standard version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was validated on James Ross Island in the northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula. The aim of this study was to verify the WRF model output at 700 m horizontal resolution using air temperature, wind speed and wind direction observations from automatic weather stations on the Ulu Peninsula, the northernmost part of James Ross Island. Validation was carried out for two contrasting periods (summer and winter) in 2019/2020 to assess possible seasonal effects on model accuracy. Simulated air temperatures were in very good agreement with measurements (mean bias −1.7 °C to 1.4 °C). The exception was a strong air temperature inversion during two of the winter days when a significant positive bias occurred at the coastal and lower-altitude locations on the Ulu Peninsula. Further analysis of the WRF estimates showed a good skill in simulating near-surface wind speed with higher correlation coefficients in winter (0.81–0.93) than in summer (0.41–0.59). However, bias and RMSE for wind speed tended to be better in summer. The performance of three WRF boundary layer schemes (MYJ, MYNN, QNSE) was further evaluated. The QNSE scheme was generally more accurate than MYNN and MYJ, but the differences were quite small and varied with time and place. The MYNN and QNSE schemes tended to achieve better wind speed simulation quality than the MYJ scheme. The model successfully captured wind direction, showing only slight differences to the observed values. It was shown that at lower altitudes the performance of the model can vary greatly with time. The model results were more accurate during high wind speed southwestern flow, while the accuracy decreased under weak synoptic-scale forcing, accompanied by an occurrence of mesoscale atmospheric processes.
<p>The Antarctic Peninsula experiences a strong climate variability which is well reflected in glacier mass balance and state of the other cryospheric components. A better insight into the interactions of the atmosphere and the cryosphere can be obtained using numerical atmospheric models. In the presented work, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 700 m horizontal resolution was validated in the northern part of James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula. The model topography was based on the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica. Sea ice cover was updated daily using high&#8211;resolution satellite observations. The WRF output was compared with air temperature, wind speed and wind direction observations from multiple automatic weather stations located in a complex topography and a mosaic of land cover types of Ulu Peninsula. Two periods in 2019/2020 representing contrasting seasons (summer and winter) were selected to identify possible seasonal effects on model accuracy. The three WRF boundary layer schemes (MYJ, MYNN, QNSE) were tested and the spatial and seasonal variability in their performance was evaluated. Simulated air temperatures were in very good agreement with measurements (mean bias &#8211;1.7 &#176;C to 1.4 &#176;C). The model was within 2 &#176;C of observations in 47&#8211;72 % of the winter period and in 66&#8211;79 % of the summer period. An exception was a strong air temperature inversion at two winter days when the model accuracy decreased at low&#8211;altitude sites. Additional analysis of the WRF output revealed a good skill in simulating near&#8211;surface wind speed with higher correlation coefficients in winter (0.81&#8211;0.93) than in summer (0.41&#8211;0.59). Wind speed mean bias was mostly lower than 2.5 m&#183;s<sup>&#8211;1</sup>, but higher wind speed overestimation was found at a coastal site during the winter validation period. The model successfully captured wind direction, showing only small differences to the observed values. Finally, the model accuracy at coastal and low&#8211;altitude sites was found to be more sensitive to the strength of synoptic&#8211;scale wind than at higher&#8211;altitude sites. &#160;</p>
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