A mean-variance model was developed for determining the optimal toll and capacity in a build-operate-transfer (BOT) roadway project subject to traffic demand uncertainty. This mean-variance model involves two objectives: maximizing mean profit and minimizing the variance (or standard deviation) of profit. The variance associated with profit is considered as a risk. Because maximizing expected profit and minimizing risk are often conflicting, there may not be a single best solution that can simultaneously optimize both objectives. Hence, it is necessary to explicitly consider this as a multiobjective problem so that a set of nondominated solutions can be generated. In this study, the optimal toll and capacity selection for the BOT problem under demand uncertainty is formulated as a special case of the stochastic network design problem. A simulation-based multiobjective genetic algorithm was developed to solve this stochastic bilevel mathematical programming formulation. Numerical results are also presented as a case study.
Solving optimization problems with multiple objectives under uncertainty is generally a very difficult task. Evolutionary algorithms, particularly genetic algorithms, have shown to be effective in solving this type of complex problems. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based multi-objective genetic algorithm (SMOGA) procedure to solve the build-operate-transfer (BOT) network design problem with multiple objectives under demand uncertainty. The SMOGA procedure integrates stochastic simulation, a traffic assignment algorithm, a distance-based method, and a genetic algorithm (GA) to solve a multi-objective BOT network design problem formulated as a stochastic bi-level mathematical program. To demonstrate the feasibility of SMOGA procedure, we solve two mean-variance models for determining the optimal toll and capacity in a BOT roadway project subject to demand uncertainty. Using the inter-city expressway in the Pearl River Delta Region of South China as a case study, numerical results show that the SMOGA procedure is robust in generating 'good' non-dominated solutions with respect to a number of parameters used in the GA, and performs better than the weighted-sum method in terms of the quality of non-dominated solutions.
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