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Changing security threat perceptions in Central Asia
KIRILL NOURZHANOV +This article discusses the current process of securitisation in Central Asia and identifies its convoluted and faulty nature as a factor impeding collective security action in the region. It uses the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) as an explanatory tool and posits that security discourse in */ and about */ the five former Soviet republics is dominated by geopolitical grand strategy on the one hand and by particularist concerns about lack of democracy or transnational threats on the other. Issues of conventional security involving two or more states, such as territorial disputes or resource management, are pushed aside and rarely securitised at the official level. The article outlines conceptual and institutional reasons for this bias, and argues that unless inter-state tensions are properly analysed, debated and addressed, the prospects for security and stability in the region will remain grim.
Dealing with threats in Central AsiaAfter gaining independence in 1991, five former Soviet Central Asian republics formed a distinct security complex. Faced with a multitude of military, societal, environmental and transnational threats, they have rarely managed to counter them in a cooperative and efficient manner. Despite their verbal commitment to the global fight against terrorism, their recent track record in this area is also unimpressive.This article will address the question of why a cooperative security system has failed to materialise in Central Asia over the past 16 years. It will argue that the absence of a realistic and objective threat assessment process has been a major factor. Security thinking in the region has been dominated by a focus on regime survival in individual countries on the one hand, and on the forceful imposition of the global security agenda on the other. This leaves little room for dealing with long-running inter-state tensions. Without resolving border issues, territorial disputes and conflicts over natural resources at the regional level, Central Asia will not have internal peace and stability nor be able to play a useful role in the international effort to defeat terrorism.
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