Enhancing the spatial accessibility of population to fire services is a key strategy to help improve emergency response, minimise property loss, and reduce injuries and deaths. Given its significance for fire service policy and strategic planning, we draw on small area population forecasts, fire station locations and the road network, and employ the enhanced two-step floating catchment method to compute the levels of spatial accessibility of population to fire services in relation to current and future population growth in Brisbane, Australia. Results show that lower levels of spatial accessibility to fire services exist in the most populated areas compared to those that are least populated. Further, we reveal that some areas are more likely to suffer a reduction in spatial accessibility than others. Spatial accessibility of population to fire services over the period to 2036 is likely to reduce as a consequence of rising demand for service. The identification of locales that experience lower levels of accessibility to fire services will enable fire services agencies to strategically plan infrastructure investment and help enhance the operational efficiency of emergency response.
In the context of changing demand for fire services, spatial optimisation of fire coverage has attracted little scholarly attention despite its potential to improve emergency response and to inform future service planning for fire stations. Drawing on small area population forecasts, this paper extends the application of the Maximum Coverage Location Model to compute and delineate the spatial coverage of current and proposed new fire stations to align with population growth estimates for Brisbane, Australia. Our results reveal important gaps in fire cover that are likely to emerge as a result of predicted population growth, the spatial patterns of which varies across the Brisbane metropolitan area. We draw on these results to delineate a series of new potential sites for fire stations to ameliorate the reduction in spatial coverage as a consequence of predicted population growth demonstrating the utility of our analytic approach for decision‐making and operational planning in the fire services.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is twofold: first is to examine the changing spatio-temporal patterns and regional trends in residential fires; and second is to investigate the likely association of fire risk with seasons, calendar events and socio-economic disadvantage.
Design/methodology/approach
Using spatial analytic and predictive techniques, 11 years of fire incident data supplied by the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services are mapped and analysed.
Findings
The results show significant spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of residential fires. Residential fire incidents are more likely to occur in the inner city and across more disadvantaged areas. Mapped outputs show some areas in Brisbane at a higher risk of fire than others and that the risk of fire escalates at specific times of the year, in neighbourhoods with a higher disadvantage, during major sporting events and school holidays. The residential fires showed strong seasonal periodicity. There is a continuous yet gradual increase in the number of fire incidents recorded for all five sub-regions within SEQ. Sunshine Coast experienced the highest upward trend whereas Toowoomba and West Moreton show the lowest increase.
Originality/value
This study provides an empirical basis to guide future operational strategies through targeting high fire risk areas at particular times. This, in turn, will help utilise finite resources in areas where and when they need and thus enable minimise emergency management costs.
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