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This paper examines the J-curve hypothesis for US agricultural and manufactured goods, using the Shiller lag model. The results support the J-curve effect for agricultural goods, but not for manufactured goods. These findings explain why many studies in the literature fail to support the J-curve phenomenon. There are two explanations for these findings: (1) the aggregation bias of data that combine both agricultural and manufactured goods and (2) the country under study is often an industrial nation like the US or Japan with a high proportion of manufactured goods in both exports and imports.

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