Shifts in surface climate may have changed the dynamic of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in the pre-Saharan zones of North Africa. Caused by Leishmania major, this form multiplies in the body of rodents serving as reservoirs of the disease. The parasite is then transmitted to human hosts by the bite of a Phlebotomine sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) that was previously fed by biting an infected reservoir. We examine the seasonal and interannual dynamics of the incidence of this ZCL as a function of surface climate indicators in two regions covering a large area of the semi-arid Pre-Saharan North Africa. Results suggest that in this area, changes in climate may have initiated a trophic cascade that resulted in an increase in ZCL incidence. We find the correlation between the rainy season precipitation and the same year Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to be strong for both regions while the number of cases of ZCL incidence lags the precipitation and NDVI by 2 years. The zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis seasonal dynamic appears to be controlled by minimum temperatures and presents a 2-month lag between the reported infection date and the presumed date when the infection actually occurred. The decadal increase in the number of ZCL occurrence in the region suggests that changes in climate increased minimum temperatures sufficiently and created conditions suitable for endemicity that did not previously exist. We also find that temperatures above a critical range suppress ZCL incidence by limiting the vector’s reproductive activity.

BackgroundCutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the most neglected tropical diseases in Morocco. Leishmania major and L. tropica are the main culprits identified in all endemic foci across the country. These two etiological agents are transmitted by Phlebotomus papatasi and P. sergenti, the two most prevalent sand fly species in Morocco. Previous studies reflected gaps of knowledge regarding the environmental fingerprints that affect the distribution of these two potential vectors across Morocco.MethodsThe sand flies were collected from 48 districts across Morocco using sticky paper traps. Collected specimens were preserved in 70 % ethanol for further processing and identification. Male and female densities were calculated in each site to examine their relations to the environmental conditions across these sites. The study used 19 environmental variables including precipitation, aridity, elevation, soil variables and a composite representing maximum, minimum and mean of day- and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).ResultsA total of 11,717 specimens were collected during this entomological survey. These specimens represented 11 species of two genera; Phlebotomus and Sergentomyia. Correlations of the sand fly densities with the environmental variables were estimated to identify the variables which influence the distribution of the two potential vectors, Phlebotomus papatasi and P. sergenti, associated with all CL endemic foci across the country. The density of P. papatasi was most affected by temperature changes. The study showed a significant positive correlation between the densities of both sexes of P. papatasi and night-time temperatures. Both P. papatasi and P. sergenti showed a negative correlation with aridity, but, such correlation was only significant in case of P. papatasi.NDVI showed a positive correlation only with densities of P. sergenti, while, soil PH and soil water stress were negatively correlated with the densities of both males and females of only P. papatasi.ConclusionsOur results identified the sand fly species across all CL endemic sites and underlined the influences of night-time temperature, soil water stress and NDVI as the most important variables affecting the sand fly distribution in all sampled sites. This preliminary study considered the importance of these covariates to anticipate the potential distribution of P. papatasi and P. sergenti in Morocco.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1343-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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The proliferation of vector-borne diseases are predicted to increase in a changing climate and Leishmaniases, as a vector-borne diseases, are re-emerging diseases in several regions of the world. In Morocco, during the last decade, a sharp increase in cutaneous leishmaniases cases has been reported. Nevertheless, in Morocco, leishmaniases are a major public health problem, and little interest was given to climate change impacts on the distribution and spread of these diseases. As insect-borne diseases, the incidence and distribution of leishmaniases are influenced by environmental changes, but also by several socio-economic and cultural factors. From a biological point of view, environmental variables have effects on the survival of insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs, which, in turn, affects transmission. Here, we highlight the effects of climate change in Morocco and discuss its consequences on the epidemiology of leishmaniases to identify challenges and define targeted recommendations to fight this disease.

In Morocco, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniases represent a public health concern. In this opinion paper, we propose to highlight chosen elements that have governed the drastic increase in the incidence of leishmaniases recorded in Morocco during the period between 1990 to 2010 in order to guide the prediction of the expansion of diseases and epidemic events. We highlight that the dispersion of the zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) form, caused by the Leishmania major parasite, appears to be closely related to that of its arthropod vector density, which is sensitive to changes in climate. The dissemination of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) was related to an increase in human travel and local tourism during the studied decades. These are linked to economic expansion and infrastructure development. Interestingly, the main ACL foci are spatially aligned with the highways, and their occurrence was synchronized with the building of transportation infrastructure. During the above-mentioned decades, the zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) caused by Leishmania infantum has expanded from its historical northern territories, dispersing outwards in all directions. This spread follows the emergence of hamlets and villages connecting with major cities.

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) are of considerable public health importance because of their ability to transmit several human parasites, mainly as vectors of Leishmania spp. Over the past decade, the epidemiological situation of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) has significantly increased with its geographic expansion to previously free areas and the emergence of overlapping foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in several provinces of Morocco. A total of 15,313 specimens was collected during this entomological survey. The genera Phlebotomus (57.38%) and Sergentomyia (42.62%) were identified. Sergentomyia minuta (22.01%) was the most prevalent species, followed by S. fallax (18.21%), Phlebotomus perniciosus (14.35%), P. papatasi (14.06%), P. sergenti (12.85%), P. longicuspis (10.74%), P. ariasi (2.68%), S. dreyfussi (1.53%), P. alexandri (1.31%), P. bergeroti (1.14%), S. christophersi (0.62%), S. africana (0.25%), P. chabaudi (0.14%), P. chadlii (0.05%), and P. kazeruni (0.04%). We aimed to determine current distribution of leishmaniases vectors, their ecological characteristics, and the significance of the predominant species at any bioclimate stage, altitude range, and soil texture in terms of the risk of leishmaniasis transmission. Journal of Vector Ecology 40 (2): 342-354. 2015.

Human visceral leishmaniasis one of the seven most neglected tropical diseases in the world. In Morocco, HVL is widespread in all regions; but it is more common in the northern part with sporadic cases observed in the South.During the period between 2004 and 2013, the most affected Moroccan provinces were Taounate province, with 220 cases (16.09% of all cases), followed by Chefchaouen with 13.17% and Taza with 10.46% of the total cases. Children < 5 years old are the most affected age group, most cases registered were male.Geographic distribution of HVL showed predominance in rural areas but we noted that it's opening to be urban.