BackgroundInfluenza-associated mortality in subtropical or tropical regions, particularly in developing countries, remains poorly quantified and often underestimated. We analyzed data in Thailand, a middle-income tropical country with good vital statistics and influenza surveillance data.MethodsWe obtained weekly mortality data for all-cause and three underlying causes of death (circulatory and respiratory diseases, and pneumonia and influenza), and weekly influenza virus data, from 2006 to 2011. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate deaths attributable to influenza in two age groups (<65 and ≥65 years) by incorporating influenza viral data as covariates in the model.ResultsFrom 2006 to 2011, the average annual influenza-associated mortality per 100 000 persons was 4·0 (95% CI: −18 to 26). Eighty-three percent of influenza-associated deaths occurred among persons aged > 65 years. The average annual rate of influenza-associated deaths was 0·7 (95% CI: −8·2 to 10) per 100 000 population for person aged <65 years and 42 (95% CI: −137 to 216) for person aged ≥ 65 years.DiscussionIn Thailand, estimated excess mortality associated with influenza was considerable even during non-pandemic years. These data provide support for Thailand's seasonal influenza vaccination campaign. Continued monitoring of mortality data is important to assess impact.

The cadmium (Cd) contaminated rice fields in Mae Sot District, Tak Province, Thailand has been one of the major environmental problems in Thailand for the last 10 years. We used disability adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to Cd in terms of additional DALYs of Mae Sot residents. Cd exposure data included Cd and β2–microglobulin (β2-MG) in urine (as an internal exposure dose) and estimated cadmium daily intake (as an external exposure dose). Compared to the general Thai population, Mae Sot residents gained 10%–86% DALYs from nephrosis/nephritis, heart diseases, osteoporosis and cancer depending on their Cd exposure type and exposure level. The results for urinary Cd and dietary Cd intake varied according to the studies used for risk estimation. The ceiling effect was observed in results using dietary Cd intake because of the high Cd content in rice grown in the Mae Sot area. The results from β2-MG were more robust with additional DALYs ranging from 36%–86% for heart failure, cerebral infarction, and nephrosis/nephritis. Additional DALYs is a useful approach for assessing the magnitude of environmental Cd exposure. The Mae Sot population lost more healthy life compared to populations living in a non- or less Cd polluted area. This method should be applicable to various types of environmental contamination problems if exposure assessment information is available.

The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand’s burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health commitments, they may hamper development of NHE capacities. GHEs should encourage and support countries to improve their data systems and develop a data infrastructure that supports the production of empirical data needed to underpin estimation efforts.

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