Given the importance of international trade and export performance in economic growth, this study attempts to examine the determinants of exports of Pakistan, using a time series data over the period 1975-2008. A simultaneous equation approach is followed and the demand and supply side equations are specified with appropriate variables. This is a country-wise disaggregated analysis of Pakistan versus its trade partners and the estimation strategy is based on two approaches. First we employ the Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM), which is followed by the Empirical Bayesian technique to get consistent estimates. The GMM technique is believed to be efficient for time series data provided the sample size is sufficiently large. In case of small samples, the estimates might not be precise and might appear with unbelievable sign and insignificant magnitudes. To avoid the sample bias and other problems, we employ the Empirical Bayesian technique which provides much precise estimates. The factual results obtained via the GMM technique are a little bit mixed, although most of the coefficients are found to be statistically significant and carry their expected signs. In order to compare and validate these results, the Empirical Bayesian technique is employed. This offers considerable improvement over the previous results and all the variables are found to be highly significant with correct sign across the countries concerned with the exception of a few cases. The price and income elasticities in both the demand and supply side equations carry their expected signs and significant magnitudes for the trading partners. The findings suggest that exports of Pakistan are much sensitive to changes in the world demand and world prices. This establishes the importance of demand side factors like world GDP, Real exchange rate, and world prices to determine the exports of Pakistan. On the supply side, we find relatively small price and income elasiticities. The results reveal that demand for exports is relatively higher for countries in NAFTA, European Union and Middle East regions. The study recommends particular concentration on the trade partners in these regions to improve the export performance of Pakistan. Keywords: Exports, GMM, Empirical Bayesian Method, Pakistan
Abstract:The response of sugarcane superior genotypes was studied for four consecutive years from 1991-92 to 1994-95 in plant and Raton stages. The studies were confined to the major aspects i.e sugar contents, sugar and cane yields. Variety CP-75/324 gave the highest cane sugar, yields of 94.335 and 7.95 t haG 1 respectively. Varieties CP-65/357, PAS-132 and COL-75 were the next following and produced at par cane yield of 83.316, 83.114 and 81.952 t haG 1 respectively. Variety S-82-US-624 showed highest sugar% (9.67). Varieties CP-51/21, CP-65/357 and BF-162 ranked next for sugar contents i.e 9.59, 8.80 and 8.79 percent respectively. CP-51/21 and CP-65/57 followed CP-75/324 for sugar yield by producing 7.47 and 7.29 t haG 1 , respectively. According to the results it is concluded that variety CP-75/324 possessed the highest cane, sugar yield, considerable sugar percent and therefore proved as the most suitable variety for the area. It was approved as a new commercial variety for the area with local name "Bannu-1" during 1992.
Cane yield and Recovery Percentage of sugar cane varieties were affected due to various irrigation frequencies.Variety COL-75 showed outstanding performance for cane yield under normal weekly irrigation in plant/ratoon stages, followed by Bannu-1 and Naurang-98 under same irrigation regime. The highest recovery percentage was noted for varieties Naurang-98 and Bannu-1 under weekly irrigation. Hence COL-75 was found with higher cane yield potential followed by Bannu-1 and Naurang-98 for cane yield and recovery percentage under normal weekly irrigation and different irrigation intervals in Bannu Division.
Performance of five sugarcane varieties viz. Bannu-1, Naurang-98, COL-75, S-86-US-422 and PAS-132 was evaluated at 39 locations on farmer's field in Bannu division for four consecutive years. The study revealed that varieties Bannu-1 and Naurang-98 out yielded other varieties during the entire period of investigation. However, amongst these, Naurang-98 exhibited better sugar recovery. Variety S-86-US-422 possessed higher sugar contents as compared to PAS-132 and COL-75. On the basis of results obtained, sugarcane varieties Bannu-1 and Naurang-98 were recommended for general cultivation in the area.
Ratooning of seven sugarcane varieties during 1996-97, 1998-99 and 1999-2000 revealed that Bannu-1, S-84-I-351 and Naurang-98 out yielded rest of the genotypes. Varieties S-84-I-351, S-86-US-422 and Naurang-98 showed higher sugar recovery over others. While, PAS-132 and COL-75 ranked poor in quantity as well as quality attributes. Varieties Bannu-1 and Naurang-98 have already been released for general cultivation while, S-84-I-351 is a candidate variety for approval.
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