Prediction of popularity has profound impact for social media, since it offers opportunities to reveal individual preference and public attention from evolutionary social systems. Previous research, although achieves promising results, neglects one distinctive characteristic of social data, i.e., sequen-tiality. For example, the popularity of online content is generated over time with sequential post streams of social media. To investigate the sequential prediction of popularity, we propose a novel prediction framework called Deep Temporal Context Networks (DTCN) by incorporating both temporal context and temporal attention into account. Our DTCN contains three main components, from embedding, learning to predicting. With a joint embedding network, we obtain a unified deep representation of multi-modal user-post data in a common embedding space. Then, based on the embedded data sequence over time, temporal context learning attempts to recurrently learn two adaptive temporal contexts for sequential popularity. Finally , a novel temporal attention is designed to predict new popularity (the popularity of a new user-post pair) with temporal coherence across multiple timescales. Experiments on our released image dataset with about 600K Flickr photos demonstrate that DTCN outperforms state-of-the-art deep prediction algorithms, with an average of 21.51% relative performance improvement in the popularity prediction (Spearman Ranking Correlation).
Topological data analysis is a noble approach to extract meaningful information from high-dimensional data and is robust to noise. It is based on topology, which aims to study the geometric shape of data. In order to apply topological data analysis, an algorithm called mapper is adopted. The output from mapper is a simplicial complex that represents a set of connected clusters of data points. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of topological data analysis for mining social network data by addressing the problem of image popularity. We randomly crawl images from Instagram and analyze the effects of social context and image content on an image's popularity using mapper. Mapper clusters the images using each feature, and the ratio of popularity in each cluster is computed to determine the clusters with a high or low possibility of popularity. Then, the popularity of images are predicted to evaluate the accuracy of topological data analysis. This approach is further compared with traditional clustering algorithms, including k-means and hierarchical clustering, in terms of accuracy, and the results show that topological data analysis outperforms the others. Moreover, topological data analysis provides meaningful information based on the connectivity between the clusters.
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