This paper aims to estimate volatility of exchange rate that was caused by inconsistent economic policies adopted by consecutive governments who failed to realize realistic exchange rate of the Sudanese pound. The consequences were mutual influence of high inflation rate, deterioration of the productive sectors, continuous internal and external deficits and depreciation of the exchange rate. To estimate the volatility of the exchange rate EGARCH (1,1) was used. The leverage effect term is negative and statistically different from zero, indicating the existence of the leverage effect (negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. As the past few years prove highly leveraged financial systems can have crises that increase the volatility of asset prices. These results indicate the possibility of a simultaneous feedback between the exchange rate and uncertainty and the response of the exchange rate to news about general price level (CPI)l, money stock, and current account which are the main determinants..

This paper empirically investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth in Sudan for the period 1982-2009 by using a simultaneous equation model that links human capital i.e. school attainment; and investment in education and health to economic growth, total productivity, foreign direct investment, and human development index. Based on three-stage least squares technique, the empirical results of the paper show that quality of the education has a determinant role in the economic growth; health quality factor has a positive impact on economic growth as expected and total factor productivity which mainly represents the state of technology has adverse effect on economic growth and human development due to the obsolete and old fashion technology.

This paper focuses on assessing the impact of macroeconomic policies on the expansion and contraction of Sudanese real GDP as well as the computation of the number and the expected duration of each for the period of the period 1960Q1-2017Q4. The main tools of analysis are Simple switching regression and Markov switching regression are. The unemployment growth rate is the regime-switching variable in addition to the growth rates of the nominal effective exchange rate, real money supply, current government expenditure, and development expenses as nonswitching variables. Markov-switching regression also outweighs simple switching regression in terms of Akaike information criterion, and transition probabilities. Results show that monetary policy was effective between the period of 1960Q1-1976Q4 adding 1.2% of real value. This however is; contrary to the period 1977Q1-1997Q4 where 60% of real value has been lost and improved significantly in the course of 1998Q1-2017Q4, hence, missing only 1%. The effect of the unemployment rate on growth at the period of contraction is almost four-time of the expansion. The positive effect of development expenses combined with the negative impact of current expenditure on the growth rate reveals the efficacy of monetary policy over fiscal. The exchange rate operates as a shock absorber. The expected duration, and the probability of staying in contraction last more than the expansion.

This paper assesses economic development path of Sudan during the period 1977 -2009 via genuine saving rate GSR, determines factors affect genuine saving, using vector autoregression. Genuine saving estimates were obtained from World Bank over the period 1977 to the referendum on South Sudan succession in 2009. Results show that the past values of manufacturing share to GDP, GSR lagged once, and growth rate GR have positive effects on GSR, contrary to GSR lagged twice, and import duty rate values IDR. Almost half the period Sudan suffers from dis-saving, affecting adversely well-being and sustainability. Dutch disease DD is apparent since the export of oil in the last quarter 1999.

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