The dangerously contagious virus named “COVID-19” has struck the world strong and has locked down billions of people in their homes to stop the further spread. All the researchers and scientists in various fields are continually developing a vaccine and prevention methods to aid the world from this challenging situation. However, a reliable prediction of the epidemic may help control this contiguous disease until the cure is available. The machine learning techniques are one of the frontiers in predicting this outbreak’s future trend and behavior. Our research is focused on finding a suitable machine learning algorithm that can predict the COVID-19 daily new cases with higher accuracy. This research has used the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) to foresee the newly infected cases in Bangladesh. We have compared both the experiments’ results, and it can be forenamed that LSTM has shown more satisfactory results. Upon study and testing on several models, we have shown that LSTM works better on a scenario-based model for Bangladesh with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)—4.51, root-mean-square error (RMSE)—6.55, and correlation coefficient—0.75. This study is expected to shed light on COVID-19 prediction models for researchers working with machine learning techniques and avoid proven failures, especially for small imprecise datasets.
Objectives: The dangerously contagious virus named SARS-CoV-2 has hit the world hard that has locked downed billion people in their homes for stopping fur- ther spread. All the researchers and scientists in various fields are working around the clock to come up with a vaccine and prevention methods to save the world from this invisible pathogen. However, reliable prediction of the epidemic may help contain the contagion until cure becomes available. The machine learning techniques is one of the frontier in predicting the future trend and behavior of this outbreak. Our research is focused on finding a suitable machine learning model that can pre- dict on small dataset with higher accuracy.Methods: In this research, we have used the Adap- tive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and the long short-term memory[LSTM] to foresee the newly infected cases in Bangladesh. We have compared both the results of the experiments and it can be forenamed that LSTM has shown more satisfactory results.Results: Upon study and testing on several models, we have showed that LSTM works better on scenario based model for Bangladesh with MAPE 4.51, RMSE 6.55 and Correlation Coefficient 0.75.Conclusion: This study is expected to shade light on Covid-19 prediction models for researchers working with machine learning techniques and help avoid proven failures specially for small imprecise dataset.
Objectives: The dangerously contagious virus named SARS-CoV-2 has hit the world hard that has locked downed billion people in their homes for stopping fur- ther spread. All the researchers and scientists in various fields are working around the clock to come up with a vaccine and prevention methods to save the world from this invisible pathogen. However, reliable prediction of the epidemic may help contain the contagion until cure becomes available. The machine learning techniques is one of the frontier in predicting the future trend and behavior of this outbreak. Our research is focused on finding a suitable machine learning model that can pre- dict on small dataset with higher accuracy.Methods: In this research, we have used the Adap- tive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and the long short-term memory[LSTM] to foresee the newly infected cases in Bangladesh. We have compared both the results of the experiments and it can be forenamed that LSTM has shown more satisfactory results.Results: Upon study and testing on several models, we have showed that LSTM works better on scenario based model for Bangladesh with MAPE 4.51, RMSE 6.55 and Correlation Coefficient 0.75.Conclusion: This study is expected to shade light on Covid-19 prediction models for researchers working with machine learning techniques and help avoid proven failures specially for small imprecise dataset.
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