Summary Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Funding Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ObjectiveWe determined which countries prohibit flavoured tobacco products and the details of those restrictions in order to identify possible gaps and opportunities for these and other countries to address.MethodsWe reviewed the grey literature, scanned news articles and consulted with key informants and identified 11 countries and the European Union (EU) that ban or restrict tobacco product flavours. We reviewed policy documents for their stated policy rationale, terms and definitions of flavours, tobacco products covered and restrictions on the use of flavour imagery and terms on tobacco product packaging.ResultsCountries with a tobacco product flavour policy include the USA, Canada, Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, Senegal, Niger, Mauritania, EU (28 Member States), Moldova, Turkey and Singapore. Most of the countries’ policies provide a rationale of dissuading youth from taking up tobacco use. Ten of the 12 policies use the terms ‘flavours’ (n=6) or ‘characterising flavours’ (n=4). Six policies cover all products made entirely or partly of tobacco leaf. Countries consistently prohibit flavours associated with fruits, vanilla and spices. The USA and Niger make an exception for menthol, while Mauritania and Uganda do not specify the scope of flavours or ingredients covered by their policies. Eight policies make no specific reference to restricting flavour descriptors on tobacco product packaging.ConclusionCountries looking to implement policies restricting flavours in tobacco products can build on existing comprehensive policies. Future research could examine the implementation and impacts of these policies, to inform other countries interested in acting in this policy domain.

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BackgroundThe current cigarette market is heavily focused on low-income and middle-income countries. Branding of tobacco products is key to establishing and maintaining a customer base. Greater restrictions on marketing and advertising of tobacco products create an incentive for companies to focus more on branding via the product itself. We consider how tobacco sticks are used for communicative purposes in 14 low-income and middle-income countries with extensive tobacco markets.MethodsIn 2013, we collected and coded 3232 cigarette and kretek packs that were purchased from vendors in diverse neighbourhoods in 44 cities across the 14 low-income and middle-income countries with the greatest number of smokers. A single stick from each pack was assessed for branding, decorative and communicative elements using a common coding framework. Stick communication variables included brand name, brand image/logo, brand descriptor, colour and design carried through from pack, ‘capsule cigarette’ symbol, and embellishment of filter end.ResultsCommunication and branding on the stick is essentially ubiquitous (99.75%); 97% of sticks include explicit branding (brand name or logo present). Colour is commonly carried through from the pack (95%), and some sticks (13%) include decorative elements matching the pack. Decorative elements can be found anywhere on the stick, including the filter tip (8%), and ‘convertible’ cigarettes include a symbol to show where to push.ConclusionsCigarette sticks are clearly valuable ‘real estate’ that tobacco companies are using for communicative purposes. Across all countries and brands, the stick communicates branding via text, colour and imagery.

Background Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and RiskFactors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. FindingsIn 2019, 273•9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258•5 to 290•9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4•72% (4•46 to 5•01). 228•2 million (213•6 to 244•7; 83•29% [82•15 to 84•42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global agestandardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1•21% [-1•26 to -1•16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0•46% [0•13 to 0•79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries

Introduction Flavors and depictions of flavors are attractive and facilitate initiation and use of tobacco products. However, little is known about the types of flavored products on the market, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We describe the nature and extent of flavored cigarettes sold in nine LMICs from four of the six WHO regions. Methods We employed a systematic protocol to purchase unique cigarette packs in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Russia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Packs were double coded for flavor descriptors and imagery using a standard codebook. Frequencies and crosstabs were conducted to examine the proportion of packs with flavor descriptors and/or flavor imagery, and flavor capsules, by country and by major manufacturer. Results Overall, 15.4% of the country-unique cigarette packs had flavor descriptors and/or imagery, representing a variety of flavors: menthol/mint (8.2%), “concept” descriptors (3.5%) (e.g., Fusion blast), fruit/citrus (3.3%), beverages (1.4%) and others (1.4%). Flavor was mostly communicated using descriptors (15.2%), with flavor imagery being less common (2.2%). Flavor capsules were prevalent (6.2%), with almost half having “concept” descriptors. All major tobacco companies produced cigarettes with flavors, and with capsules. Conclusions A range of flavored cigarettes remain on the market in the LMICs with the greatest number of smokers. This finding is particularly concerning given the appeal of flavored cigarettes among youth and their potential to circumvent country bans on flavored tobacco products if those laws are not sufficiently comprehensive. Laws addressing flavored tobacco products need to account for flavor capsules and concept descriptors. Implications While a number of countries have restricted flavors in tobacco products to reduce their appeal and attractiveness, a range of flavors continue to be on the market in low- and middle-income countries, putting people in these countries at increased risk for tobacco use and subsequent tobacco-caused death and disease. The presence of capsules and concept descriptors is particularly concerning given their appeal among youth and their potential to circumvent country bans on flavored tobacco products if those laws are not sufficiently comprehensive.

ObjectiveTo compare two methods to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Mexico and to contrast these results with tobacco industry figures.MethodsWe used two survey methods: a smoker survey and a discarded pack survey. Data were collected in eight major cities in Mexico between November and December 2017. A total of 2396 face-to-face interviews to adult smokers were conducted and 8204 discarded packs were collected. To determine whether cigarette packs were intended for the Mexican market, we analysed pack features required by Mexican regulations and self-reported brands of the last purchase. Standard statistical tests to compare proportions were employed. Correlates of illicit cigarette use were also analysed.ResultsThe share of cigarettes not intended for the Mexican market was 8.8% based on the analysis of discarded packs and 7.6% based on the survey of smokers, that is, the difference was small and only borderline significant overall (p=0.055). Also, both results were lower than those presented by the tobacco industry (16.6%). However, differences across methods were statistically significant for various cities.ConclusionOur results suggest that the optimal practice for the study of illicit trade is to cross validate estimates using both the smoker survey and the littered pack survey. If resources are limited, however, our findings indicate that either method could be used because both yield similar overall results, as longs as the potential biases are considered. Also, consistent with findings from other studies, our results suggest that the tobacco industry exaggerates the scope of illicit cigarette trade.

The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, a global health treaty ratified by over 175 countries, calls on countries to ensure that tobacco packages carry health warning labels (HWLs) describing the harmful effects of tobacco use. We assessed the extent of compliance with 14 countries' HWL requirements. Unique cigarette packs were purchased in 2013 using a systematic protocol in 12 distinct neighborhoods within three of the ten most populous cities in the 14 low- and middle-income countries with the greatest number (count) of smokers. HWL compliance codebooks were developed for each country based on the details of country-specific HWL requirements, with up to four common compliance indicators assessed for each country (location, size, label elements, text size). Packs (n=1859) were double coded for compliance. Compliance was examined by country and pack characteristics, including parent company and brand family. Overall, 72% of coded cigarette packs were compliant with all relevant compliance indicators, ranging from 17% in the Philippines to 94% in Mexico. Compliance was highest for location of the warning (ranging from 75%-100%) and lowest for warning size (ranging from 46%-99%). Compliance was higher for packs bought in high SES neighborhoods, and varied by parent company and brand family. This multi-country study found at least one pack in every country - and many packs in some countries - that were not compliant with key requirements for health warning labels in the country of purchase. Non-compliance may be exacerbating health disparities. Tobacco companies should be held accountable for complying with country HWL requirements.