Our purpose was to identify clinical, radiological and physiological (CRP) determinants of survival and to develop a CRP scoring system that predicts survival in newly diagnosed cases of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The study population consisted of 238 patients with biopsy confirmed usual interstitial pneumonia. For each patient, clinical manifestations, chest radiographs, and pulmonary physiology were prospectively assessed. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to assess the effect of these parameters on survival. The effects of age and smoking were included in the analysis. Survival was related to age, smoking status (longer in current smokers), clubbing, the extent of interstitial opacities and presence of pulmonary hypertension on the chest radiograph, reduced lung volume, and abnormal gas exchange during maximal exercise. A mathematical CRP score for predicting survival was derived from these parameters. We showed that this CRP score correlated with the extent and severity of the important histopathologic features of IPF, i.e., fibrosis, cellularity, the granulation/connective tissue deposition, and the total pathologic derangement. Using these models, clinicians are in a better position to provide prognostic information to patients with IPF and to improve the selection of the most appropriate patients for lung transplantation or other standard or novel therapeutic interventions.

BackgroundThere is much discussion in the cancer drug development community about how to incorporate molecular tools into early-stage clinical trials to assess target modulation, measure anti-tumor activity, and enrich the clinical trial population for patients who are more likely to benefit. Small, molecularly focused clinical studies offer the promise of the early definition of optimal biologic dose and patient population.Methods and FindingsBased on preclinical evidence that phosphatase and tensin homolog deleted on Chromosome 10 (PTEN) loss sensitizes tumors to the inhibition of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), we conducted a proof-of-concept Phase I neoadjuvant trial of rapamycin in patients with recurrent glioblastoma, whose tumors lacked expression of the tumor suppressor PTEN. We aimed to assess the safety profile of daily rapamycin in patients with glioma, define the dose of rapamycin required for mTOR inhibition in tumor tissue, and evaluate the antiproliferative activity of rapamycin in PTEN-deficient glioblastoma. Although intratumoral rapamycin concentrations that were sufficient to inhibit mTOR in vitro were achieved in all patients, the magnitude of mTOR inhibition in tumor cells (measured by reduced ribosomal S6 protein phosphorylation) varied substantially. Tumor cell proliferation (measured by Ki-67 staining) was dramatically reduced in seven of 14 patients after 1 wk of rapamycin treatment and was associated with the magnitude of mTOR inhibition (p = 0.0047, Fisher exact test) but not the intratumoral rapamycin concentration. Tumor cells harvested from the Ki-67 nonresponders retained sensitivity to rapamycin ex vivo, indicating that clinical resistance to biochemical mTOR inhibition was not cell-intrinsic. Rapamycin treatment led to Akt activation in seven patients, presumably due to loss of negative feedback, and this activation was associated with shorter time-to-progression during post-surgical maintenance rapamycin therapy (p < 0.05, Logrank test).ConclusionsRapamycin has anticancer activity in PTEN-deficient glioblastoma and warrants further clinical study alone or in combination with PI3K pathway inhibitors. The short-term treatment endpoints used in this neoadjuvant trial design identified the importance of monitoring target inhibition and negative feedback to guide future clinical development.Trial registration: http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov (#NCT00047073).