Since the beginning of the 1990s, an increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has been observed in rivers and lakes in various parts of Europe and North America. The processes responsible for the increased DOC concentrations are complex and not entirely understood. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the recent debate about increases in the DOC concentrations in surface water and their possible drivers
Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin‐wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land‐use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ‐ Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed‐wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed‐wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land‐use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed‐wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%–26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land‐use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land‐use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.
While ecotoxicology has long recognised the importance of identifying levels at which contaminants pose threats to biota, most estimates of species responses to toxicants are derived from controlled laboratory studies and may hold limited relevance to natural systems. However, designing appropriate field‐based studies investigating contaminant induced changes in assemblages has been challenging, partially due to the difficulty in identifying comparable uncontaminated reference sites. The aim of this study is to characterise the effects of heavy metal contamination on natural fish assemblages using an ecologically relevant catchment‐scale design. We hypothesise that environmental variables, including discharge, sediment, and landscape variables, can be used to characterise differences in fish species richness and abundances between sites contaminated with heavy metals and uncontaminated reference sites. We apply a geographic information systems approach that uses assemblage–environment relationships developed using hydrologic model outputs, land cover, and topographic data from uncontaminated reference sites to predict expected fish species richness and abundance at sites contaminated with heavy‐metals within the Big River catchment in south‐eastern Missouri, U.S.A. These predicted levels of richness and abundance are then compared to observed assemblages at contaminated sites to estimate the potential impacts of historical lead mining activities on freshwater taxa. We developed models that characterised variation in Centrarchidae (bass and sunfish) richness and abundance, Cyprinidae (minnows) abundance, and Percidae (darters) richness using variables including streamflow regime, suspended sediment concentration, and land cover at uncontaminated sites. Using these relationships, we predicted expected fish species richness and abundance at heavy metal contaminated sites across the Big River catchment and found a significant reduction in centrarchid abundance from field‐collected data compared to predicted estimates. Our results suggest that centrarchids, which tend to occupy a higher trophic level than cyprinids and percids, have lower abundances at sites contaminated with heavy metals than predicted by assemblage–environment relationships. These decreases in abundance are not associated with decreases in centrarchid species richness, cyprinid abundance, or percid richness. This geographic information systems‐based approach provides a useful and ecologically relevant framework for understanding the response of taxa to the presence of contaminants without assuming habitat equivalence across sites. Our findings also suggest the need for further research regarding how heavy metals impact fishes of varying trophic levels in natural settings.
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