CSF biomarkers, including total-tau, neurofilament light chain (NfL) and amyloid-β, are increasingly being used to define and stage Alzheimer’s disease. These biomarkers can be measured more quickly and less invasively in plasma and may provide important information for early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease. We used stored plasma samples and clinical data obtained from 4444 non-demented participants in the Rotterdam study at baseline (between 2002 and 2005) and during follow-up until January 2016. Plasma concentrations of total-tau, NfL, amyloid-β40 and amyloid-β42 were measured using the Simoa NF-light® and N3PA assays. Associations between biomarker plasma levels and incident all-cause and Alzheimer’s disease dementia during follow-up were assessed using Cox proportional-hazard regression models adjusted for age, sex, education, cardiovascular risk factors and APOE ε4 status. Moreover, biomarker plasma levels and rates of change over time of participants who developed Alzheimer’s disease dementia during follow-up were compared with age and sex-matched dementia-free control subjects. During up to 14 years follow-up, 549 participants developed dementia, including 374 cases with Alzheimer’s disease dementia. A log2 higher baseline amyloid-β42 plasma level was associated with a lower risk of developing all-cause or Alzheimer’s disease dementia, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.47–0.78; P < 0.0001] and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.43–0.79; P = 0.0006), respectively. Conversely, a log2 higher baseline plasma NfL level was associated with a higher risk of all-cause dementia [adjusted HR 1.59 (95% CI, 1.38–1.83); P < 0.0001] or Alzheimer’s disease [adjusted HR 1.50 (95% CI, 1.26–1.78); P < 0.0001]. Combining the lowest quartile group of amyloid-β42 with the highest of NfL resulted in a stronger association with all-cause dementia [adjusted HR 9.5 (95% CI, 2.3–40.4); P < 0.002] and with Alzheimer’s disease [adjusted HR 15.7 (95% CI, 2.1–117.4); P < 0.0001], compared to the highest quartile group of amyloid-β42 and lowest of NfL. Total-tau and amyloid-β40 levels were not associated with all-cause or Alzheimer’s disease dementia risk. Trajectory analyses of biomarkers revealed that mean NfL plasma levels increased 3.4 times faster in participants who developed Alzheimer’s disease compared to those who remained dementia-free (P < 0.0001), plasma values for cases diverged from controls 9.6 years before Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis. Amyloid-β42 levels began to decrease in Alzheimer’s disease cases a few years before diagnosis, although the decline did not reach significance compared to dementia-free participants. In conclusion, our study shows that low amyloid-β42 and high NfL plasma levels are each independently and in combination strongly associated with risk of all-cause and Alzheimer’s disease dementia. These data indicate that plasma NfL and amyloid-β42 levels can be used to assess the risk of developing dementia in a non-demented population. Plasma NfL levels, although not specific, may also be useful in monitoring progression of Alzheimer’s disease dementia.

Objective:To determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015.Methods:This analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years in seven population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined non-overlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex.Results:Of 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person years in individuals aged 65-69 years, to 65 per 1,000 person years for those aged 85-89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% CI: 7%-19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%-32%] versus 8% [0%-15%]).Conclusion:The incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

Background: Quantifying changes in the levels of biological and cognitive markers prior to the clinical presentation of Alzheimer's disease (AD) will provide a template for understanding the underlying aetiology of the clinical syndrome and, concomitantly, for improving early diagnosis, clinical trial recruitment and treatment assessment. This study aims to characterise continuous changes of such markers and determine their rate of change and temporal order throughout the AD continuum. Methods: The methodology is founded on the development of stochastic models to estimate the expected time to reach different clinical disease states, for different risk groups, and synchronise short-term individual biomarker data onto a disease progression timeline. Twenty-seven markers are considered, including a range of cognitive scores, cerebrospinal (CSF) and plasma fluid proteins, and brain structural and molecular imaging measures. Data from 2014 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database is utilised. Results: The model suggests that detectable memory dysfunction could occur up to three decades prior to the onset of dementia due to AD (ADem). This is closely followed by changes in amyloid-β CSF levels and the first cognitive decline, as assessed by sensitive measures. Hippocampal atrophy could be observed as early as the initial amyloid-β accumulation. Brain hypometabolism starts later, about 14 years before onset, along with changes in the levels of total and phosphorylated tau proteins. Loss of functional abilities occurs rapidly around ADem onset. Neurofilament light is the only protein with notable early changes in plasma levels. The rate of change varies, with CSF, memory, amyloid PET and brain structural measures exhibiting the highest rate before the onset of ADem, followed by a decline. The probability of progressing to a more severe clinical state increases almost exponentially with age. In accordance with previous studies, the presence of apolipoprotein E4 alleles and amyloid-β accumulation can be associated with an increased risk of developing the disease, but their influence depends on age and clinical state. Conclusions: Despite the limited longitudinal data at the individual level and the high variability observed in such data, the study elucidates the link between the long asynchronous pathophysiological processes and the preclinical and clinical stages of AD.

Alzheimer's disease patients typically present with multiple co-morbid neuropathologies at autopsy, but the impact of these pathologies on cognitive impairment during life is poorly understood. in this study, we developed cognitive trajectories for patients with common co-pathologies in the presence and absence of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology. cognitive trajectories were modelled in a Bayesian hierarchical regression framework to estimate the effects of each neuropathology on cognitive decline as assessed by the mini-mental state examination and the clinical dementia rating scale sum of boxes scores. We show that both TDP-43 proteinopathy and cerebral amyloid angiopathy associate with cognitive impairment of similar magnitude to that associated with Alzheimer's disease neuropathology. Within our study population, 63% of individuals given the 'gold-standard' neuropathological diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease in fact possessed either TDP-43 proteinopathy or cerebral amyloid angiopathy of sufficient severity to independently explain the majority of their cognitive impairment. this suggests that many individuals diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease may actually suffer from a mixed dementia, and therapeutics targeting only Alzheimer's disease-related processes may have severely limited efficacy in these co-morbid populations. Alzheimer's disease is a progressive neurodegenerative disease displaying extreme variability in clinical features and biomarkers, and with multiple genetic and environmental factors involved in its aetiology and progression 1-3. Despite this, the current 'gold-standard' post-mortem diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease is primarily an inclusive diagnosis based on the presence of two brain lesions-amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles 4. While this system effectively identifies patients with pathological changes in both amyloid-β and tau, it does not acknowledge the major role of coincident pathologies commonly observed within ' Alzheimer's disease' populations 5. Indeed, whilst it is becoming widely appreciated that multiple pathologies are the norm amongst dementia patients 6 , consensus criteria are still narrowly focused on identifying correlations between cognitive impairment and in vivo biomarkers of amyloid-β and tau accumulation 7 , with investigations into common co-pathologies given low priority at present. This strategy ignores the likelihood that even within well-defined ' Alzheimer's disease' populations, in which all individuals possess substantial amyloid-β and tau pathology, a large proportion

The 2018 National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) research framework recently redefined Alzheimer's disease (AD) as a biological construct, based on in vivo biomarkers reflecting key neuropathologic features. Combinations of normal/abnormal levels of three biomarker categories, based on single thresholds, form the AD signature profile that defines the biological disease state as a continuum, independent of clinical symptomatology. While single thresholds may be useful in defining the biological signature profile, we provide evidence that their use in studies with cognitive outcomes merits further consideration. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative with a focus on cortical amyloid binding, we discuss the limitations of Conflict of interest: Prof. Roy M. Anderson is a nonexecutive board member of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). GSK played no part in this research, its funding, or the preparation of the manuscript. Prof. Lefkos T. Middleton has consultancy agreements with Eli Lilly, Astra Zeneca, Novartis, and Takeda; is a National (UK) Coordinator for the TOMMORROW, Amaranth and Generation I&II Clinical Trials, and the Janssen Chariot PRO studies; has received research funding for his Imperial team from Janssen, Takeda, AstraZeneca, Novartis, and UCB Pharmaceuticals; and does not hold any agreement with any of the funders in relation to patents, products in development relevant to this study, or marketed products. Prof. Frank de Wolf was employed by the Janssen Prevention Center until February 2019. The Janssen Prevention Center played no part in this research, its funding, or the preparation of the manuscript.Ethical approval (humans): As per ADNI protocols, all procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. More details can be found at adni.loni.usc.edu. (This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors).Ethical approval (animals): This article does not contain any studies performed on animals by any of the authors.The study was approved by the institutional review boards of all the participating institutions, and informed written consent was obtained from all participants at each site. One such institution is the Office for the Protection of Research Subjects at the University of Southern California. More details can be found at adni.loni.usc.edu.Consent for publication has been granted by ADNI administrators. Availability of data and material: Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). The primary goal of ADNI has been to test whether serial MRI, PET, other biological markers, and clinical and neuropsychological assessment can be combined to measure the progression of mild cognitive impairment and early Alzhe...