Although research on human-mediated exchanges of species has substantially intensified during the last centuries, we know surprisingly little about temporal dynamics of alien species accumulations across regions and taxa. Using a novel database of 45,813 first records of 16,926 established alien species, we show that the annual rate of first records worldwide has increased during the last 200 years, with 37% of all first records reported most recently (1970–2014). Inter-continental and inter-taxonomic variation can be largely attributed to the diaspora of European settlers in the nineteenth century and to the acceleration in trade in the twentieth century. For all taxonomic groups, the increase in numbers of alien species does not show any sign of saturation and most taxa even show increases in the rate of first records over time. This highlights that past efforts to mitigate invasions have not been effective enough to keep up with increasing globalization.

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.

Summary 1.There are few studies of the performance of species in restored vegetation communities. Here we report the results of a meta-analysis of 25 experiments concerned with species-rich grassland restoration on ex-arable land and agriculturally improved grasslands situated at a wide range of locations throughout lowland Britain. Differences in species' performance were related to 38 physiological and morphological traits.2. An experiment-adjusted performance index was calculated for each of the 58 species (13 grasses and 45 forbs). The performance index was calculated for the first 4 years after establishment together with a temporal trend. 3. Individual species showed large differences in performance indices. However, grasses consistently out-performed forbs. 4. We examined the linkage between species' performance and traits according to four non-exclusive hypotheses. The ability to establish and persist in restored vegetation communities requires: (H1) good gap colonization ability; (H2) strong competitive capability; and (H3) ability to undergo vegetative regeneration. (H4) Successful species are generalists associated with fertile habitats. 5. Trait analyses supported all four hypotheses. Within the forbs, good establishment in the first year was linked to traits determining colonization ability: ruderality, percentage germination of seeds and autumn germination. However, traits linked to competitive ability, vegetative growth and seed bank persistence became increasingly important determinants of success with time. Species with generalist habitat requirements, and especially those associated with fertile soils, performed increasingly well with time. This reflects the development of a closed vegetation in which the ability to grow vigorously and out-compete other established plants is important. 6. Stress-tolerators, habitat specialists and species of infertile habitats performed badly. This may reflect high residual fertility in restored grasslands and particular niche requirements of these species. This may be a problem as grassland restoration often targets communities characterized by species with these traits and many are food plants of invertebrates of conservation value. 7. There were few significant correlations between the performance of the grasses and traits reflecting their overall good performance in comparison with the forbs. 8. This study has important implications for practical restoration programmes and policies. Efficiency might be increased by introducing only species with good performance, but this would lead to uniformity among restored grasslands and would diminish the benefits of habitat restoration for national and regional biodiversity. 9. Synthesis and applications. Future work should focus on practical methods to increase the successful establishment of the poor performing but desirable species, by (i) targeting restoration to low fertility soils, (ii) changing the abiotic environment or (iii) the 'phased introduction' of species several years after restoration, when both the p...

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Summary 1.Agricultural intensification has resulted in the reduction and fragmentation of species-rich grasslands across much of western Europe. 2. We examined the key ecological processes that limit the creation of diverse grassland communities on ex-arable land in a multi-site experiment over a wide variety of soil types and locations throughout lowland Britain. 3. The results showed it was possible to create and maintain these communities successfully under a hay-cutting and grazing management regime. Furthermore, there was a high degree of repeatability of the treatment effects across the sites. 4. Lack of seed of desirable species was the key factor limiting the assembly of diverse grassland communities. Sowing a species-rich seed mixture of ecologically adapted grassland plants was an effective means of overcoming this limitation. Community assembly by natural colonization from the seed bank and seed rain was a slow and unreliable process. However, there was no evidence to suggest that sowing a species-poor grass-dominated seed mixture made the vegetation any less susceptible to colonization by desirable species than allowing natural regeneration to take place. 5. Deep cultivation caused significant reductions in soil P and K concentrations across the sites. This had a significant beneficial effect on the establishment and persistence of sown forbs in all years. It also resulted in a significant reduction in the number of unsown weedy grasses. However, for both variables these differences were very small after 4 years. 6. Sowing a nurse crop significantly reduced the number of unsown grass species, but had no beneficial effect on the establishment of desirable species. 7. Treatments sown with the species-rich seed mixture following deep cultivation corresponded most closely to the specified target communities defined by the UK National Vegetation Classification. Natural regeneration and treatments sown with the speciespoor seed mixture were much less similar to the target. The sites on circum-neutral soils achieved the greatest degree of similarity to the target. Those on calcareous and acid soils failed to achieve their targets and most closely resembled the target for neutral soils. This reflected the poor performance of the sown preferential species for these communities.

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Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS.Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS.Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.

The benefits of protected areas (PAs) for biodiversity have been questioned in the context of climate change because PAs are static, whereas the distributions of species are dynamic. Current PAs may, however, continue to be important if they provide suitable locations for species to colonize at their leading-edge range boundaries, thereby enabling spread into new regions. Here, we present an empirical assessment of the role of PAs as targets for colonization during recent range expansions. Records from intensive surveys revealed that seven bird and butterfly species have colonized PAs 4.2 (median) times more frequently than expected from the availability of PAs in the landscapes colonized. Records of an additional 256 invertebrate species with less-intensive surveys supported these findings and showed that 98% of species are disproportionately associated with PAs in newly colonized parts of their ranges. Although colonizing species favor PAs in general, species vary greatly in their reliance on PAs, reflecting differences in the dependence of individual species on particular habitats and other conditions that are available only in PAs. These findings highlight the importance of current PAs for facilitating range expansions and show that a small subset of the landscape receives a high proportion of colonizations by range-expanding species.conservation | climate change adaptation | nature reserves M ore than 10% of the Earth's land surface has already been designated as protected area (PA) (1, 2), and there are calls to expand protection to 17% of the land (3, 4). However, the importance of a PA approach to conservation is open to question in the context of anthropogenic climate change and other environmental drivers that are causing species to shift their distributions. Terrestrial species' distributions are shifting to higher latitudes and elevations (5-7), many species are at increased risk of extinction (8,9), and the composition of biological communities is changing (10, 11). These observations, combined with predicted future changes to the composition of biological communities inside PAs (12-16), call into question (i) the long-term protection provided to species by PAs, because species may shift out of the sites where they were previously considered to be protected, and (ii) the legislative basis for protection in situations where legal PA designation stems from the occurrences of particular species or biological communities (17, 18) that may not remain within the PAs in the future. PAs have, on occasion, been downgraded or dedesignated in the face of competing demands (19), and there are suggestions that a PA approach could be outmoded (20) or that underperforming PAs should be replaced (21).However, the overall risk to a species from climate change (and other large-scale drivers of distribution change) depends on the balance between losses of populations within the former range, on the one hand, and gains associated with the colonization of new regions where the climate or other conditions improve (8, 9)....