The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Observations of the large earth bumblebee, Bombus terrestris (L.), in native vegetation were collated to determine the extent to which this exotic species has invaded Tasmanian native vegetation during the first 9 years after its introduction. The range of B. terrestris now encompasses all of Tasmania's major vegetation types, altitudes from sea level to 1260m a.s.L, and the entire breadth of annual precipitation in the state from more than 3200 mm to less than 600 mm. Observations of workers carrying pollen, together with the presence of large numbers of bumblebees at many localities across this range indicate that colonies are frequently established in native vegetation. Evidence that colonies are often successful was obtained from repeated observations of the species during more than 1 year at particular sites. Unequivocal evidence of colonies was obtained from six National Parks, including four of the five in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (WHA). Indeed, the species has been present in the WHA for at least as long as it has in the city of Hobart, where it was first recorded. In southwestern Tasmania, evidence of colonies was obtained up to 40km from gardens, 61 km from small towns and 93 km from large towns. Hence, contrary to previous suggestions, the species is established in the most remote parts of Tasmania and is not dependent on introduced garden plants. Given their strong record of invasion, it is likely that B. terrestris will form feral populations on the mainland of Australia and in many other parts of the world if introduced. Because of their likely negative impacts on native animals and plants, and potential to enhance seed production in weeds, the spread of bumblebees should be avoided.

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Summary1. The general importance of metacommunity and metapopulation theories is poorly understood because few studies have examined responses of the suite of species that occupy the same fragmented landscape. In this study, we examined the importance of spatial ecological theories using a large-scale, naturally fragmented landscape. 2. We measured the occurrence and abundance of 44 common beetle species in 31 natural rainforest fragments in Tasmania, Australia. We tested for an effect on beetle distribution of geographic variables (patch area, patch isolation and amount of surrounding habitat) and of environmental variables based on plant species, after first accounting for spatial autocorrelation using principal coordinates of neighbour matrices. The environmental variables described a productivity gradient and a post-fire succession from eucalypt-dominated forest to late-successional rainforest. 3. Few species had distributions consistent with a metapopulation. However, the amount of surrounding habitat and patch isolation influenced the occurrence or abundance of 30% of beetle species, implying that dispersal into or out of patches was an important process. 4. Three species showed a distribution that could arise by interactions with dominant competitors or predators with higher occurrence in small patches. 5. Environmental effects were more commonly observed than spatial effects. Twenty-three per cent of species showed evidence of habitat-driven, deterministic metapopulations. Furthermore, almost half of the species were influenced by the plant succession or productivity gradient, including effects at the within-patch, patch and regional scales. The beetle succession involved an increase in the frequency of many species, and the addition of new species, with little evidence of species turnover. Niche-related ecological theory such as the species-sorting metacommunity theory was therefore the most broadly applicable concept. 6. We conclude that classic and source-sink metapopulations are probably rare in this large-scale, naturally fragmented system, although dispersal processes like those occurring in metapopulations may have a substantial influence on community composition. However, deterministic processes (niche specialisation, species-sorting metacommunities and deterministic metapopulations) drive the occurrence or frequency of the majority of species. We urge further research into the prevalence of spatial ecological processes in large-scale natural ecosystems to expand our understanding of the processes that may be important in nature.

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