The isotopic composition of carbon, δ¹³C, in seawater is used in reconstructions of ocean circulation, marine productivity, air-sea gas exchange, and biosphere carbon storage. Here, a synthesis of δ¹³C measurements taken from foraminifera in marine sediment cores over the last 150 000 years is presented. The dataset comprises previously published and unpublished data from benthic and planktonic records throughout the global ocean. Data are placed on a common δ¹⁸O age scale suitable for examining orbital timescale variability but not millennial events, which are removed by a 10 ka filter. Error estimates account for the resolution and scatter of the original data, and uncertainty in the relationship between δ¹³C of calcite and of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in seawater. This will assist comparison with δ¹³C of DIC output from models, which can be further improved using model outputs such as temperature, DIC concentration, and alkalinity to improve estimates of fractionation during calcite formation.

High global deep ocean δ¹³C, indicating isotopically heavy carbon, is obtained during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1, 3, 5a, c and e, and low δ¹³C during MIS 2, 4 and 6, which are temperature minima, with larger amplitude variability in the Atlantic Ocean than the Pacific Ocean. This is likely to result from changes in biosphere carbon storage, modulated by changes in ocean circulation, productivity, and air-sea gas exchange. The North Atlantic vertical δ¹³C gradient is greater during temperature minima than temperature maxima, attributed to changes in the spatial extent of Atlantic source waters. There are insufficient data from shallower than 2500 m to obtain a coherent pattern in other ocean basins. The data synthesis indicates that basin-scale δ¹³C during the last interglacial (MIS 5e) is not clearly distinguishable from the Holocene (MIS 1) or from MIS 5a and 5c, despite significant differences in ice volume and atmospheric CO₂ concentration during these intervals. Similarly, MIS 6 is only distinguishable from MIS 2 or 4 due to globally lower δ¹³C values both in benthic and planktonic data. This result is obtained despite individual records showing differences between these intervals, indicating that care must be used in interpreting large scale signals from a small number of records

Stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in the Antarctic ice core record have revolutionized our understanding of Pleistocene climate variations and have allowed reconstructions of Antarctic temperature over the past 800,000 years (800 kyr; refs 1, 2). The relationship between the D/H ratio of mean annual precipitation and mean annual surface air temperature is said to be uniform +/-10% over East Antarctica and constant with time +/-20% (refs 3-5). In the absence of strong independent temperature proxy evidence allowing us to calibrate individual ice cores, prior general circulation model (GCM) studies have supported the assumption of constant uniform conversion for climates cooler than that of the present day. Here we analyse the three available 340 kyr East Antarctic ice core records alongside input from GCM modelling. We show that for warmer interglacial periods the relationship between temperature and the isotopic signature varies among ice core sites, and that therefore the conversions must be nonlinear for at least some sites. Model results indicate that the isotopic composition of East Antarctic ice is less sensitive to temperature changes during warmer climates. We conclude that previous temperature estimates from interglacial climates are likely to be too low. The available evidence is consistent with a peak Antarctic interglacial temperature that was at least 6 K higher than that of the present day -approximately double the widely quoted 3 +/- 1.5 K (refs 5, 6).

How to cite:Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, N. R.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Lenton, T. M. and Wilkinson, R. D. (2010). A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1. Climate Dynamics, 35 (5) AbstractIn order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate, we "precalibrate" the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1 by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model. We develop ~1,000 parameter sets which reproduce the main features of modern climate, but not precise observations. This allows a wide range of large-scale feedback response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour. We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity and quantify the contributions of atmospheric (±0.93ºC, 1σ) vegetation (±0.32ºC), ocean (±0.24ºC) and sea-ice (±0.14ºC) parameterisations to the total uncertainty. We then perform an LGM-constrained Bayesian calibration, incorporating data-driven priors and formally accounting for structural error. We estimate climate sensitivity as likely (66% confidence) to lie in the range 2.6 to 4.4ºC, with a peak probability at 3.6ºC. We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in the range 5.3 to 7.5ºC, with a peak probability at 6.2ºC. In addition to estimates of global temperature change, we apply our ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO 2 probability distributions for land carbon storage, Atlantic overturning and sea-ice coverage.Notably, under 2xCO 2 we calculate a probability of 37% that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values, so the land sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO 2 .

The effect of idealized wind-driven circulation changes in the Southern Ocean on atmospheric CO 2 and the ocean carbon inventory is investigated using a suite of coarse-resolution, global coupled ocean circulation and biogeochemistry experiments with parameterized eddy activity and only modest changes in surface buoyancy forcing, each experiment integrated for 5,000 years. A positive correlation is obtained between the meridional overturning or residual circulation in the Southern Ocean and atmospheric CO 2 : stronger or northward-shifted westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere result in increased residual circulation, greater upwelling of carbon-rich deep waters and oceanic outgassing, which increases atmospheric pCO 2 by *20 latm; weaker or southward-shifted winds lead to the opposing result. The ocean carbon inventory in our model varies through contrasting changes in the saturated, disequilibrium and biogenic (soft-tissue and carbonate) reservoirs, each varying by O(10-100) PgC, all of which contribute to the net anomaly in atmospheric CO 2 . Increased residual overturning deepens the global pycnocline, warming the upper ocean and decreasing the saturated carbon reservoir.

The cavities beneath Antarctic ice shelves are among the least studied regions of the World Ocean, yet they are sites of globally important water mass transformations. Here we report results from a mission beneath Fimbul Ice Shelf of an autonomous underwater vehicle. The data reveal a spatially complex oceanographic environment, an ice base with widely varying roughness, and a cavity periodically exposed to water with a temperature significantly above the surface freezing point. The results of this, the briefest of glimpses of conditions in this extraordinary environment, are already reforming our view of the topographic and oceanographic conditions beneath ice shelves, holding out great promises for future missions from similar platforms.

Abstract. The isotopic composition of carbon, δ13C, in seawater is used in reconstructions of ocean circulation, marine productivity, air-sea gas exchange, and biosphere carbon storage. Here, a synthesis of δ13C measurements taken from foraminifera in marine sediment cores over the last 150 000 years is presented. The dataset comprises previously published and unpublished data from benthic and planktonic records throughout the global ocean. Data are placed on a common δ18O age scale and filtered to remove timescales shorter than 6 kyr. Error estimates account for the resolution and scatter of the original data, and uncertainty in the relationship between δ13C of calcite and of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in seawater. This will assist comparison with δ13C of DIC output from models, which can be further improved using model outputs such as temperature, DIC concentration, and alkalinity to improve estimates of fractionation during calcite formation. High global deep ocean δ13C, indicating isotopically heavy carbon, is obtained during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1, 3, 5a, 5c and 5e, and low δ13C during MIS 2, 4 and 6, which are temperature minima, with larger amplitude variability in the Atlantic Ocean than the Pacific Ocean. This is likely to result from changes in biosphere carbon storage, modulated by changes in ocean circulation, productivity, and air-sea gas exchange. The North Atlantic vertical δ13C gradient is greater during temperature minima than temperature maxima, attributed to changes in the spatial extent of Atlantic source waters. There are insufficient data from shallower than 2500 m to obtain a coherent pattern in other ocean basins. The data synthesis indicates that basin-scale δ13C during the last interglacial (MIS 5e) is not clearly distinguishable from the Holocene (MIS 1) or from MIS 5a and 5c, despite significant differences in ice volume and atmospheric CO2 concentration during these intervals. Similarly, MIS 6 is only distinguishable from MIS 2 or 4 due to globally lower δ13C values both in benthic and planktonic data. This result is obtained despite individual records showing differences between these intervals, indicating that care must be used in interpreting large scale signals from a small number of records.

Abstract. We describe the design and evaluation of a large ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity GENIE. This ensemble has been designed for application to a range of carbon cycle questions, including the causes of late-Quaternary fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. Here we evaluate the ensemble by applying it to a transient experiment over the recent industrial era (1858 to 2008 AD). We employ singular vector decomposition and principal component emulation to investigate the spatial modes of ensemble variability of oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) δ13C, considering both the spun-up pre-industrial state and the transient change. These analyses allow us to separate the natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic controls on the δ13CDIC distribution. We apply the same dimensionally-reduced emulation techniques to consider the drivers of the spatial uncertainty in anthropogenic DIC. We show that the sources of uncertainty related to the uptake of anthropogenic δ13CDIC and DIC are quite distinct. Uncertainty in anthropogenic δ13C uptake is controlled by air–sea gas exchange, which explains 63% of modelled variance. This mode of variability is largely absent from the ensemble variability in CO2 uptake, which is rather driven by uncertainties in thermocline ventilation rates. Although the need to account for air–sea gas exchange is well known, these results suggest that, to leading order, uncertainties in the ocean uptake of anthropogenic 13C and CO2 are governed by very different processes. This illustrates the difficulties in reconstructing one from the other, and furthermore highlights the need for careful targeting of both δ13CDIC and DIC observations to better constrain the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2.

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