Species faced with rapidly shifting environments must be able to move, adapt, or acclimate in order to survive. One mechanism to meet this challenge is phenotypic plasticity: altering phenotype in response to environmental change. Here, we investigated the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in two key phenology traits (fall bud set and spring bud flush) in a widespread riparian tree species, Populus fremontii. Using replicated genotypes from 16 populations from throughout the species’ thermal range, and reciprocal common gardens at hot, warm, and cool sites, we identified four major findings: (a) There are significant genetic (G), environmental (E), and GxE components of variation for both traits across three common gardens; (b) The magnitude of phenotypic plasticity is correlated with provenance climate, where trees from hotter, southern populations exhibited up to four times greater plasticity compared to the northern, frost‐adapted populations; (c) Phenological mismatches are correlated with higher mortality as the transfer distances between provenance and garden increase; and (d) The relationship between plasticity and survival depends not only on the magnitude and direction of environmental transfer, but also on the type of environmental stress (i.e., heat or freezing), and how particular traits have evolved in response to that stress. Trees transferred to warmer climates generally showed small to moderate shifts in an adaptive direction, a hopeful result for climate change. Trees experiencing cooler climates exhibited large, non‐adaptive changes, suggesting smaller transfer distances for assisted migration. This study is especially important as it deconstructs trait responses to environmental cues that are rapidly changing (e.g., temperature and spring onset) and those that are fixed (photoperiod), and that vary across the species’ range. Understanding the magnitude and adaptive nature of phenotypic plasticity of multiple traits responding to multiple environmental cues is key to guiding restoration management decisions as climate continues to change.

We examined the hypothesis that genotypic variation among populations of commonly co-occurring phreatophytic trees (Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii) and the shrub (Salix exigua) regulates aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) at a hot site at the edge of the species' distribution. We used a provenance trial in which replicated genotypes from populations varying in mean annual temperature were transplanted to a common garden adjacent to the Lower Colorado River in southeastern California. The garden environment represented an extreme maximum temperature for the study species. Four major findings emerged: (1) Genotypic variation in ANPP was significant for all species with broad-sense heritability (H 2 ) across populations of 0.11, 0.13, and 0.10 for P. fremontii, S. gooddingii, and S. exigua, respectively, and within-population H 2 ranging from 0.00 to 0.25, 0.00 to 0.44, and 0.02 to 0.21, respectively.(2) Population ANPP decreased linearly as mean annual maximum temperature (MAMT) transfer distance increased for both P. fremontii (r 2 = 0.64) and S. gooddingii (r 2 = 0.37), whereas it did not change for S. exigua; (3) Populations with similar MAMT to that of the common garden were 1.5 and 1.2 times more productive than populations with 5.0°C MAMT transfer distances for P. fremontii and S. gooddingii, respectively; and (4) Variation in regression slopes among species for the relationship between ANPP and MAMT indicate species-specific responses to temperature. As these plant species characterize a threatened habitat type and support a diverse community that includes endangered species, ecosystem restoration programs should consider using both local genotypes and productive genotypes from warmer environments to maximize productivity of riparian ecosystems in the face of global climate change.

Climate change, particularly increased aridity, poses a significant threat to plants and the biotic communities they support. Dioecious species may be especially vulnerable to climate change given that they often exhibit spatial segregation of the sexes, reinforced by physiological and morphological specialization of each sex to different microhabitats. In dimorphic species, the overexpression of a trait by one gender versus the other may become suppressed in future climates. Data suggest that males will generally be less sensitive to increased aridity than co-occurring females and, consequently, extreme male-biased sex ratios are possible in a significant number of populations. The effects of male-biased sex ratios are likely to cascade to dependent community members, especially those that are specialized on one sex.

Summary1. Plant functional traits involved in carbon and water acquisition are likely to be adaptive across the range of a species if the availability of these resources varies across this range and are limiting to growth or fitness. At the interspecific level, leaf economic traits associated with rapid resource capture are correlated with fast growth rates. However, relationships between leaf traits and growth are poorly understood at the intraspecific level. 2. We examined two hypotheses: (i) leaf traits vary genotypically among Populus fremontii populations from different thermal environments; and (ii) leaf traits are related to growth rate of these P. fremontii populations. We used a common garden at the warm edge of P. fremontii distribution that included individuals transplanted from 11 provenances. Provenances varied in mean annual maximum temperature by 5Á9°C, reflecting a range of expected increases in temperature over the next 80 years. 3. Conservative leaf traits (e.g. low specific leaf area, N content, stomatal conductance, net photosynthetic rate and high leaf water-use efficiency) were positively related to growth rates of genotypes and populations, a pattern opposite of that widely reported among species in other studies. 4. Provenance temperature explained 75% of the variation in multivariate leaf traits with the warmest provenances having the most conservative traits and highest growth rates. Clinal genetic variation suggests that P. fremontii may be adapted to thermal environments. 5. Leaf area-to-sapwood area ratio was positively associated with growth rate, while leaf areabased net photosynthetic rate was negatively associated with growth rate; these results suggest that hydraulic architecture was more important than leaf-level photosynthetic rate in determining growth rate. 6. Synthesis. Our results suggest that conservative leaf traits promote rapid growth of P. fremontii genotypes in extremely hot environments. Thus, relationships between leaf economic traits among species do not necessarily apply to the range of variation among genotypes within species. The generality of this pattern should be examined for other species that will be exposed to climate warming. Moreover, our research shows that common garden provenance trials are useful for identifying genotypes best suited to a predicted warmer climate and for improving understanding of the physiological basis for adaptation to warm environments.

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