Social innovation discourses see in social challenges opportunities to make societies more sustainable and cohesive through inclusive practices, coproduction and proactive grassroots initiatives. In this paper we are concerned first that the concept has been stretched in so many directions that it is at breaking point. We illustrate this by documenting the varied uses of social innovation in different academic and policy discourses. Second, we assume that, if social innovation is to be a useful concept for policy-makers, then it must tell us something about what adjustments are needed to develop an effective political economy that is social innovation ready. Finally, we argue that what is needed is more theoretical and empirical work to help social innovation to develop into an effective policy tool.

Payment by results allows the government to pay a provider of services on the basis of the outcomes their service achieves rather than the inputs or outputs the provider delivers. Social impact bonds (SIBs) are a form of payment by results which allow the financing of social outcomes via private investment. It is suggested that payment by results and SIBs will drive greater efficiency, innovation and impact in tackling social problems through focusing reward on outcomes and providing minimal prescription as to how these outcomes should be achieved. It is suggested that this may be achieved while also reducing risk for government. Here we set out the challenges likely to arise in developing payment by results models and SIBs in the criminal justice system of England and Wales. These include the uncertainty arising from defining outcomes, estimating the potential impact of interventions, measuring and attributing change, valuing benefits, demonstrating a fiscal return and getting interventions to scale. We conclude that, to a government trying to deliver ‘more for less’, payment by results may offer an attractive solution in some parts of the public sector. However, the case for this approach in the criminal justice sector, where the evidence base is contested and potential savings difficult to quantify and realize, is not yet proven.

This chapter discusses the development of outcomes-based commissioning in the UK, focusing on Payment by Results (PbR) and Social Impact Bonds (SIBs). It first considers key policies that have underpinned outcomes-based commissioning in the UK since 2010 before analysing PbR programmes and SIBs in more detail, highlighting results and some of the important issues related to these areas of policy. It shows that the themes of New Public Management (NPM) and risk management are evident in the development of PbR and SIBs, whereas the theme of social innovation is present but less prominent. The chapter also provides an overview of the social investment market and two PbR programmes, namely, the Work Programme and the Troubled Families programme. Finally, it describes two SIBs: HMP Peterborough SIB and Nottingham Futures SIB.

We investigated the impact of climate change on the number of wildfires in the Peak District uplands of northern England. Wildfires in peat can result in severe carbon loss and damage to water supplies, and fighting such fires is difficult and costly in such a remote location. The Peak District is expected to experience warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Local weather simulations from a weather generator were used to predict the future incidence and timing of fires. Wildfire predictions were based on past fire occurrence and weather over 27.5 yr. A Probit model of wildfire incidence was applied to simulated weather data, which were generated by a Markov process and validated against actual baseline weather data using statistical criteria and success in replicating past fire patterns. The impact of climate change on the phenology and ecology of moorland and on visitor numbers was considered. Simulations suggest an overall increase in occurrence of summer wildfires. The likelihood of spring wildfires is not reduced by wetter winter conditions; however, the chance of wildfires rises as rainfall decreases. Temperature rise has a non-linear impact, with the risk of wildfire occurrence rising disproportionately with temperature. Recreation use is a major source of ignition. Little change in wildfire incidence is projected in the near future, but as climate change intensifies, the danger of summer wildfires is projected to increase from 2070; therefore, fire risk management will be necessary in future. In addition, moorlands may have to be managed to reduce the chance of summer wildfires becoming catastrophic, with consequent damage to ecosystem services such as water supplies and peat carbon storage. Management measures may include controlled burning, grazing or mowing to remove fuel.

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources. A probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week and under various weather conditions. Current and past rainfall damp fire risk. The likelihood of fire increases with maximum temperature. Dry spells or recent fire activity also signal extra fire hazard. Certain days are fire prone due to visitors and some months of the year are more risky reflecting the changing flammability of moorland vegetation. The model back-predicts earlier fires during a hot dry summer. The impact of climate change on fire incidence is not straightforward. Risks may be reduced if wetter winters and earlier onset of spring add to plant moisture content. Yet a warm spring increases biomass and potential fuel load in summer. Climate change may cause the timing of moorland wildfires to shift from a damper and more verdant spring to drought-stressed summer.

Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities. Yet few studies assess the effect of current weather and climate conditions upon visits to leisure attractions.Statistical time series models are used to analyse the short-run impact of weather and the long-run impact of climate upon visits to Chester Zoo, England. Temperature has a non-linear effect on visit levels. Daily visits rise with temperature up to a threshold around 21°C. Thereafter visitor numbers drop on hot days. Visits are redistributed over time in accordance with the weather. Visitors discouraged by rainy weather one day turn up later when the weather improves. Otherwise, visitor behaviour is mainly influenced by the annual rhythm of the year and the pattern of public and school holidays. Out-of-sample tests suggest almost 70% of the variation in visit levels can be explained by the combination of weather and time of year.Climate change is likely to redistribute visitors across the year. But it does not follow that "summer" visitor behaviour will transfer to spring and autumn. Day length, existing patterns of human activity and availability of leisure time constrain visit levels regardless of better weather. The main implication of potential climate change is the need for physical adaptation of the tourist environment as temperatures rise and rainfall diminishes in summer.

The global scrap market supplies 40% of ferrous material used for steelmaking. Scrap is consolidated up a tier of processors. World prices for scrap are set in the USA and transmitted through dockside trading. British and American scrap markets have become more closely cointegrated over time, with fewer price differences owing to short run seasonal variations.Scrap prices regularly halve and double. The scrap market is also affected by episodic price 'bubbles' and occasional price crashes. These are rare and transient features of the market. The rise of US minimills and growth in Far Eastern demand have not caused any structural breaks in the behaviour of markets. Statistical tests suggest there is no long run relationship between scrap prices and energy prices.Recycling works on a global basis. There is scope for closer collaboration between steelmakers, scrap suppliers and manufacturers to promote re-use, remanufacture and recycling through careful initial design and material selection.

In recent years the UK government has emphasized evidence-based policy, as a part of which the Payment by Results (PbR) approach has increasingly been promoted. Payment by Results allows the government to pay a provider of services on the basis of specified outcomes achieved rather than the inputs or outputs delivered. Linked to PbR is the innovative source of funding social interventions know as Social Impact Bonds (SIBs). We discuss the potential benefits of PbR and survey its use across the UK public sector. Then, concentrating in particular on the Criminal Justice System (CJS) we outline three methodological challenges to the implementation of PbR: gaming, measuring outcomes and identifying fiscal benefits. We then identify a number of challenges to the implementation of PbR. We conclude that PbR has a place in commissioning services, but that its role in the CJS is likely to be limited and unlikely to succeed as a socially efficient means of attracting new sources of funding. We finish by considering two alternatives to PbR: justice reinvestment and personalization.