The Wadden Sea is a shallow intertidal coastal sea, largely protected by barrier islands and fringing the North Sea coasts of Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark. It is subject to influences from both the North Sea and major European rivers. Nutrient enrichment from these rivers since the 1950s has impacted the Wadden Sea ecology including loss of seagrass, increased phytoplankton blooms, and increased green macroalgae blooms. Rivers are the major source of nutrients causing Wadden Sea eutrophication. The nutrient input of the major rivers impacting the Wadden Sea reached a maximum during the 1980s and decreased at an average pace of about 2.5% per year for total Nitrogen (TN) and about 5% per year for total Phosphorus (TP), leading to decreasing nutrient levels but also increasing N/P ratios. During the past decade, the lowest nutrient inputs since 1977 were observed but these declining trends are leveling out for TP. Phytoplankton biomass (measured as chlorophyll a) in the Wadden Sea has decreased since the 1980s and presently reached a comparatively low level. In tidal inlet stations with a long-term monitoring, summer phytoplankton levels correlate with riverine TN and TP loads but stations located closer to the coast behave in a more complex manner. Regional differences are observed, with highest chlorophyll a levels in the southern Wadden Sea and lowest levels in the northern Wadden Sea. Model data support the hypothesis that the higher eutrophication levels in the southern Wadden Sea are linked to a more intense coastward accumulation of organic matter produced in the North Sea.
Summary1. After the dramatic eutrophication-induced decline of intertidal seagrasses in the 1970s, the Wadden Sea has shown diverging developments. In the northern Wadden Sea, seagrass beds have expanded and become denser, while in the southern Wadden Sea, only small beds with low shoot densities are found. A lack of documentation of historical distributions hampers conservation management. Yet, the recovery in the northern Wadden Sea provides opportunity to construct robust habitat suitability models to support management. 2. We tuned habitat distribution models based on 17 years of seagrass surveys in the northern Wadden Sea and high-resolution hydrodynamics and geomorphology for the entire Wadden Sea using five machine learning approaches. To obtain geographically transferable models, hyperparameters were tuned on the basis of prediction accuracy assessed by non-random, spatial cross-validation. The spatial cross-validation methodology was combined with a consensus modelling approach. 3. The predicted suitability scores correlated amongst each other and with the hold-out observations in the training area indicating that the models converged and were transferable across space. Prediction accuracy was improved by averaging the predictions of the best models. 4. We graphically examined the relationship between the consensus suitability score and independent presence-only data from outside the training area using the area-adjusted seagrass frequency per suitability class (continuous Boyce index). The Boyce index was positively correlated with the suitability score indicating the adequacy of the prediction methodology. 5. We used the plot of the continuous Boyce index against habitat suitability score to demarcate three habitat classes -unsuitable, marginal and suitable -for the entire international Wadden Sea. This information is valuable for habitat conservation and restoration management. 6. Divergence between predicted suitability and actual distributions from the recent past indicates that unaccounted factors limit seagrass development in the southern Wadden Sea. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our methodology and data enabled us to produce a robust and validated consensus habitat suitability model. We identified highly suitable areas where intertidal seagrass meadows may establish and persist. Our work provides scientific underpinning for effective conservation planning in a dynamic landscape and sets monitoring priorities.
The distribution and cover density of macroalgae (Chlorophyta, Ulvaceae) were estimated by means of aerial surveys in 1990-1992 in the Wadden Sea of Niedersachsen, an intertidal area of some 1200 km 2 situated at the German North Sea coast. Each year, up to a maximum of 15 % of the total area was covered by algae. The spatial distribution was heterogeneous. In some subregions the macroalgal carpets covered from 30 % up to 60 % of the tidal flats.The cover density was at its peak in 1990. Additionally, tentative ground truth investigations were carried out on species composition. Reviewing other reports of macroalgal mass development at various sites in Europe, it is assumed that in the German Wadden Sea the recent macroalgal blooms have to be regarded as a response to eutrophication, and will presumably remain a chronic problem for many years to come.
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