The purpose of this paper is to build a predictive model of enrollment that provides data driven analysis to improve undergraduate recruitment efforts. We utilize an inquiry model, which examines the enrollment decisions of students that have made contact with our institution, a medium sized, public, Doctoral I university. A student, who makes an inquiry to our university such as by returning a request for information form, often provides far less information than is available from applicants. Despite this fact we find that characteristics of the student, as well as geographic and demographic data based on the student's zip code are significant predictors of enrollment. Accounting for uncertainty in our model's specification, we find that we are able to predict out of sample the enrollment decision of 89% of student inquiries. We also demonstrate how these findings can be used to improve marketing efforts.
We posited student behaviors observed during the recruitment process may reveal a student's commitment to our institution and their initial motivation to succeed, which influences their level of integration and decision to leave college or remain. In particular, we examined the impact of participating in a college fair, visiting the campus before enrollment, and attending Welcome Weekend on stop-out times of students. Our findings suggest students who participate in these activities are significantly more likely to succeed. The time enrolled increases by 33.0% for college fair participants, 6.5% for campus visitors, and 18.0% for participants of Welcome Weekend.
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