This study proposes an alternative approach for examining volatility linkages between Standard & Poor's 500, Eurodollar futures and 30 year Treasury Bond futures markets using implied volatility from the three markets. Simple correlation analysis between implied volatilities in the three markets is used to assess market correlations. Spurious correlation effects are considered and controlled for. I find that correlations between implied volatilities in the equity, money and bond markets are positive, strong and robust. Furthermore, I replicate the approach of Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek (1998) to check the substitutability of the implied volatility approach and find that the results are nearly identical; I conclude that my approach is simple, robust and preferable in practice. I also argue that the results from this paper provide supportive evidence on the information content of implied volatilities in the equity, bond and money markets. Copyright (c) The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2009 AFAANZ.
This study examines the forecasting power of the most popular volatility forecasting models in the S&P 500 index market, the Eurodollar futures market, and the 30-year US T-Bond futures market at a daily level using a market-based option-pricing error approach. Comparison has been made between two methods including and excluding implied volatility in option-pricing error approach in forecasting next-day volatilities. To remove any advantage to option-implied volatility, the analysis is performed in two steps. Spurious regression biases and biases in the measurement of volatility forecasts are controlled for.The evidence from this paper supports the use of implied volatility as a proxy for market volatility, as it works best in forecasting next-day realized volatility in all the three US markets. The appropriateness of including implied volatility in option-pricing error approach is also discussed.
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