We examine the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on unemployment rate in Nigeria using a battery cointegration tests. Results reveals a long run relation between unemployment rate (UNER) and chosen macroeconomic variables. The results of the vector error correction model (VECM) show that real GDP at lag 2 and current exchange rate (EXR) positively affect UNER. Moreover, UNER at lag 1, money supply (M2) at lag 2, EXR at lag 2, current lending rate (LR) and its first lag negatively affects UNER. These results are robust to the satisfaction of various diagnostic tests including residual normality assumption, correction for autocorrelation and white heteroskedasticity.
Decades after the trade liberalisation policy shift, poor performance problem of non-oil export in Nigeria (a net-oil exporting economy) persists. Against this backdrop, and given the lack of analytical depth among Nigerian-specific studies, this study empirically provided answer to the question of whether trade liberalisation policy enhances non-oil export trade in Nigeria. The study adopted an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach to the analysis of the impact of trade liberalisation policy on non-oil export trade. Evidence provided support for trade liberalisation policy as the growth driver for non-oil export, a sector that exports more but earns little in terms of revenue. As a result, the study recommends a well thought-out public–private partnership arrangement for the efficiency of the private sector (a major player in non-oil export trade), to optimally harness the benefits of liberalisation in Nigeria’s non-oil trade sub-sector. JEL Codes: F14, F17, F41, F62
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