The COVID-19 pandemic affects mortality and morbidity, with disruptions expected to continue for some time, with access to timely cancer-related services a concern. For breast cancer, early detection and treatment is key to improved survival and longer-term quality of life. Health services generally have been strained and in many settings with population breast mammography screening, efforts to diagnose and treat breast cancers earlier have been paused or have had reduced capacity. The resulting delays to diagnosis and treatment may lead to more intensive treatment requirements and, potentially, increased mortality. Modelled evaluations can support responses to the pandemic by estimating short- and long-term outcomes for various scenarios. Multiple calibrated and validated models exist for breast cancer screening, and some have been applied in 2020 to estimate the impact of breast screening disruptions and compare options for recovery, in a range of international settings. On behalf of the Covid and Cancer Modelling Consortium (CCGMC) Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer), we summarize and provide examples of such in a range of settings internationally, and propose priorities for future modelling exercises. International expert collaborations from the CCGMC Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer) will conduct analyses and modelling studies needed to inform key stakeholders recovery efforts in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.

Introduction: To identify predictors of hypoglycemia and five other clinical and economic outcomes among treated patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) using machine learning and structured data from a large, geographically diverse administrative claims database. Methods: A retrospective cohort study design was applied to Optum Clinformatics claims data indexed on first antidiabetic prescription date. A hypothesis-free, Bayesian machine learning analytics platform (GNS Healthcare REFS TM : Reverse Engineering and Forward Simulation) was used to build ensembles of generalized linear models to predict six outcomes defined in patients' 1-year post-index claims history, including hypoglycemia, antidiabetic class persistence, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) target Enhanced Digital Features To view enhanced digital features for this article go to https://doi.org/10.6084/ m9.figshare.11527902.

Intraductal papillomas (IDP) are challenging breast findings because of their variable risk of progression to malignancy. The molecular events driving IDP development and genomic features of malignant progression are poorly understood. In this study, genome-wide CNA and/or targeted mutation analysis was performed on 44 cases of IDP, of which 20 cases had coexisting ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), papillary DCIS or invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). CNA were rare in pure IDP, but 69% carried an activating PIK3CA mutation. Among the synchronous IDP cases, 55% (11/20) were clonally related to the synchronous DCIS and/or IDC, only one of which had papillary histology. In contrast to pure IDP, PIK3CA mutations were absent from clonal cases. CNAs in any of chromosomes 1, 16 or 11 were significantly enriched in clonal IDP lesions compared to pure and non-clonal IDP. The observation that 55% of IDP are clonal to DCIS/IDC indicates that IDP can be a direct precursor for breast carcinoma, not limited to the papillary type. The absence of PIK3CA mutations and presence of CNAs in IDP could be used clinically to identify patients at high risk of progression to carcinoma.

The current model for breast cancer progression proposes independent ‘low grade (LG)‐like’ and ‘high grade (HG)‐like’ pathways but lacks a known precursor to HG cancer. We applied low‐coverage whole‐genome sequencing to atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) with and without carcinoma to shed light on breast cancer progression. Fourteen out of twenty isolated ADH cases harboured at least one copy number alteration (CNA), but had fewer aberrations than LG or HG ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). ADH carried more HG‐like CNA than LG DCIS (e.g. 8q gain). Correspondingly, 64% (7/11) of ADH cases with synchronous HG carcinoma were clonally related, similar to LG carcinoma (67%, 6/9). This study represents a significant shift in our understanding of breast cancer progression, with ADH as a common precursor lesion to the independent ‘low grade‐like’ and ‘high grade‐like’ pathways. These data suggest that ADH can be a precursor of HG breast cancer and that LG and HG carcinomas can evolve from a similar ancestor lesion. We propose that although LG DCIS may be committed to a LG molecular pathway, ADH may remain multipotent, progressing to either LG or HG carcinoma. This multipotent nature suggests that some ADH cases could be more clinically significant than LG DCIS, requiring biomarkers for personalising management. Copyright © 2019 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Participants in population screening diagnosed with ESBC receive substantially less-intense treatment than non-participants. Differences persist when potential overdiagnosis is taken into account; these differences should be factored into debates around mammographic screening.