The waveform of the cortical event-related potential is extremely sensitive to variations in the sequence of stimuli preceding the eliciting event. The waveform changes were manifested primarily in the amplitudes of the negative component of the potential that peaked at 200 milliseconds, the positive component that peaked at 300 milliseconds, and the slow-wave components. A quantitative model was developed relating the waveform changes to changes in event expectancy. Expectancy is assumed to depend on a decaying memory for events within the prior sequence, the specific structure of the sequence, and the global probability of event occurrence. For stimuli relevant to the task, the less expected the stimulus the larger the amplitudes of late components of the event-related potentials.
A long-latency comnponent of the averaged evoked potential recorded from the human scalp varied in close relationship with subjects' perceptual reports in an auditory signal detection task. Detected signals evoked potentials several times larger than did undetected signals, falsely reported signals, or correctly reported nonsignals. The threshold signal intensity at which detection perfornmance exceeded chance levels was identical with concurrently obtained electro-physiological measures of threshold.
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