Many countries and regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years. Recent crippling heat waves swept across the Earth, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of “tipping points” later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming is accelerating unevenly across the planet, with the Arctic warming at more than three times the average rate of our world. We also analyzed the reliability of latitude‐dependent surface temperature simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and their multi‐model mean (MMM) by comparing their outputs to observational data sets. We selected the best‐performing models based on their statistical abilities to reproduce historical, latitude‐dependent values adapted from these data sets. The surface temperature projections were calculated from ensemble simulations of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) by the selected CMIP6 models. We estimate the calendar years of when surface temperatures will increase by 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5°C relative to the preindustrial period, both globally and in the three target regions. Our results reaffirm a dramatic, upward trend in projected surface temperatures, with unprecedented acceleration in the Arctic Circle, which could lead to catastrophic consequences across the Earth. Further studies are necessary to determine the most efficient solutions to reduce global warming acceleration and maintain a low SSP, both globally and regionally.
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21 st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, the Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming is accelerating unevenly across the planet, with the Arctic warming at approximately three times the average rate of our world. We further analyzed the reliability of latitude-dependent surface temperature simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and their multi-model mean. We found that GISS-E2-1-G and FGOALS-g3 were the best-performing models based on their statistical abilities to reproduce observational, latitude-dependent data. Surface temperatures were projected from ensemble simulations of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5). We estimate when the climate will warm by 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 ℃ relative to the preindustrial period, globally and regionally. GISS-E2-1-G projects that global surface temperature anomalies would reach 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 ℃ in 2024 (±1.34), 2039 (±2.83), and 2057 (±5.03) respectively, while FGOALS-g3 predicts these "tipping points" would arrive in 2024 (±2.50), 2054 (±7.90), and 2087 (±10.55) respectively. Our results reaffirm a dramatic, upward trend in projected climate warming acceleration, with upward concavity in 21st century projections of the Arctic, which could lead to catastrophic consequences across the Earth. Further studies are necessary to determine the most efficient solutions to reduce global warming acceleration and maintain a low SSP, both globally and regionally.Historically, fatal heatwaves have been linked to anthropogenic global warming (Mitchell et al., 2016). Hansen et al., (2020) reaffirmed the prevalence of global warming acceleration in the past half decade through the large deviation of global temperature anomalies from the linear warming rate of 1970-2020. The study attributes this pronounced acceleration to the energy imbalance of our planet and an increase in net climate forcing. Accelerated global warming has had substantial impacts on the global hydrologic cycle, food production, energy, health, natural disasters, and socioeconomics (
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