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This research details the development and validation of an updated constituent tidal database for the Western North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (WNAT) region, referred to as the EC2015 database. Regional databases, such as EC2015, provide much higher resolution than global databases allowing users to more accurately define the tidal forcing on smaller sub-region domains. The database last underwent major updates in 2001 and was developed using the two-dimensional, depth-integrated form of the coastal hydrodynamic model, ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), which solves the shallow-water equations in the generalized wave continuity equation form. Six main areas of improvement are examined: (1) placement of the open ocean boundary; (2) higher coastal resolution using Vertical Datum (VDatum) models; (3) updated bathymetry from global databases; (4) updated boundary forcing compared using two global tidal databases; (5) updated bottom friction formulations; and (6) improved model physics by incorporating the advective terms in ADCIRC. The skill of the improved database is compared to that of its predecessor and is calculated using harmonic data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (NOAA CO-OPS) stations and historic International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) data. Overall, the EC2015 database significantly reduces errors realized in the EC2001 database and improves the quality of coastal tidal constituents available for smaller sub-regional models in the Western North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (WNAT) region.

This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program.

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model.