Objective: More than 95% of criminal convictions in the United States are secured by guilty pleas. Our current understanding of the "deals" that lead so many to plead guilty is often tied to the shadow-of-the-trial (SoT) model, which posits that plea outcomes rely solely on the penalty discrepancy they offer (represented as: [trial conviction probability 3 trial sentence]plea sentence). This study compared the power of the SoT model to predict plea outcomes with two expanded models. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that the SoT model's power to predict whether defendants will accept a plea offer could be improved by expanding the model. The first expanded model added a main effect of guilt status, presuming that regardless of penalty discrepancy, the guilty will be more likely to accept plea offers than the innocent. The second expanded model added an interactive effect of guilt status with penalty discrepancy: although greater discrepancies would increase both true and false guilty pleas, the magnitude of the effect would be greater among the innocent. Method: We recruited student (N = 596, 45.8% female, M = 19.9 years old) and nonstudent (N = 525, 45.1% female, M = 30.9 years old) adult samples to participate in a 2 (guilt status: innocent or guilty) 3 3 (conviction probability: 20%, 50%, or 80%) 3 3 (plea discount: 6, 12, or 18 months) mixed design. All participants experienced two crime scenarios in a counterbalanced order. We randomized the manipulated variables for each scenario such that each participant was administered two of eighteen potential conditions. Results: As hypothesized, the predictive power of the SoT model was significantly improved by expanding it to include guilt status-guilty participant-defendants were consistently more likely to accept the plea offer than innocent participant-defendants. However, an interactive effect of guilt status with penalty discrepancy did not significantly improve the power of the SoT model to predict plea outcomes. Conclusions: The power of the SoT model could be significantly improved by incorporating guilt status as a predictor. Although there are many times at which guilt status is unknown, the acknowledgment of a separate effect of guilt status has important policy implications for the plea process. Public Significance StatementThe dominant model of plea decision-making has posited that guilty pleas occur "in the shadow-of-thetrial," rendering actual guilt status largely irrelevant. The current research demonstrates that guilt status does meaningfully impact plea decisions. Future research can now focus on ways of capitalizing upon the differences between the innocent and guilty to reform the system of pleas in a way that preserves a high true guilty plea rate while better insulating the innocent from the pressure to plead guilty falsely.
Over 95% of criminal convictions in the United States are the result of guilty pleas. Consequently, it is critical that we ensure the process of pleading guilty is as free of coercion as possible. Yet, research has indicated that incarcerating defendants to await trial could have an undue influence on their decision to plead guilty. The current research employed a novel computer simulation to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on plea decision making among the innocent and the guilty when faced with potential pretrial detention. While presenting COVID-related information to participants increased both true and false guilty pleas, further analyses indicated that concerns about COVID-19 weighed more heavily on the innocent than the guilty. These findings illustrate the negative impact a pandemic could have in combination with a system of pleas that often allows prosecutors to provide defendants with just one guaranteed respite from jail—a guilty plea.
In two studies, we examined the impact of defense attorney recommendation on defendant plea decision-making. Community members and college students participated in a 2 (guilt status: innocent or guilty) × 2 (defense attorney recommendation: accept or reject offer) between-subjects factorial design study. The plea scenario was conveyed via an interactive computer simulation. In both studies (Study 1, n = 106; Study 2, n = 282), guilty participants were more likely to plead guilty than innocent participants. In Study 2, participants advised to accept the plea were more likely to plead guilty than those advised to reject the plea. Furthermore, being advised to reject the plea resulted in larger changes in willingness to accept a plea (WTAP) than being advised to accept the plea. This asymmetric effect was driven by those participants who were initially inclined to plead guilty but then received advice inconsistent with that inclination.
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