Prison sentences set by a paroling authority vary, as expected, with characteristics of the offenders. Is part of the variation in sentences, however, associated not with the offenders but with the persons responsible for the decisions? Comparisons of sentences set by various parole board members may be misleading if differences in the types of offenders con cerned are not taken into account. If an experimental study of the question with adequate controls for "types of offenders" is not feasible, statistical controls might be substituted. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate a method for com paring decisions by parole board members. Study of the sentences of 2,053 men paroled in one year, analyzed according to six parole board members who participated in the hearing, demon strated the need for the study suggested. The groups of offenders were not directly comparable. When relevant characteristics of the offenders were taken into account, it was found that the decision-makers tended to make similar decisions.
This study compares two statistical techniques-multiple regression and configural analysis—used in developing parole prediction tables, according to their ability to (1) differentiate between offenders who violate parole and those who do not, (2) predict violators from among a new group of parolees, and (3) assist administrators and researchers.First, experience tables had to be developed and tested for prediction ability. Once their accuracy in predicting had been demonstrated, they could be used as base expectancies because they had the quality of being "expected." As such, they could be used as a yardstick to evaluate correctional programs' ability to reduce these "expected" violation rates.The two methods were applied to the same body of data and the results were compared. The data consist of Wisconsin adult male offenders paroled in 1954-57 and in 1958-59. All were followed up for two years while they were on parole. The first group was used to develop the experience tables; the second group was used to test prediction ability.
The widespread presence of sleep, health, cognitive, temperament, and developmental problems in this sample supports the involvement of medical and developmental health experts in teams evaluating young children who present with high levels of aggressive behavior. The diverse nature of cognitive-temperament profiles in this sample also suggests a need to assess cognitive ability and temperament in young, aggressive children to provide individualized interventions.
At the request of leading national parole organizations, the National Parole Institutes undertook a study to determine whether a useful information system describing the results of parole can be developed as a joint effort of paroling authorities.A tentative model for uniform parole statistics was devised by representatives of twenty-nine parole agencies. The model was tested by eight agencies, which contributed data monthly, and was examined further by sixteen agencies. The result is a workable data collection system, a common vocabulary, and procedures for feedback to participating agencies.The data collected during the study demonstrate that comparisons of agency effectiveness must take into account differences in the kinds of offenders paroled.The study shows that the tentative model ultimately can provide a firm basis for meaningful analyses of parole experience based on uniform reporting from all our diverse parole systems.
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