Summary1. When species face extinction, captive breeding may be appropriate. However, captive breeding may be unsuccessful, while reducing motivation and resources for in situ conservation and impacting wild source populations. Despite such risks, decisions are generally taken without rigorous evaluation. We develop an individual-based, stochastic population model to evaluate the potential effectiveness of captive-breeding and release programmes, illustrated by the critically endangered Ardeotis nigriceps Vigors great Indian bustard. 2. The model was parameterized from a comprehensive review of captive breeding and wild demography of large bustards. To handle uncertainty in the standards of captive-breeding performance that may be achieved, we explored four scenarios of programme quality: 'full range' (parameters sampled across the observed range), 'below average', 'above average' and 'best possible' (performance observed in exemplary breeding programmes). Results are evaluated examining: (i) the probability of captive population extirpation within 50 years and (ii) numbers of adult females subsequently established in the wild following release, compared to an alternative strategy of in situ conservation without attempting captive breeding. 3. Successful implementation of captive breeding, involving permanent retention of 20 breeding females and release of surplus juveniles, required collection of many wild eggs and consistent 'best possible' performance across all aspects of the programme. Under 'full-range' and 'above-average' scenarios, captive population extirpation probabilities were 73-88% and 23-51% respectively, depending on egg collection rates. 4. Although most (73-92%) 'best possible' programmes supported releases, re-establishment of free-living adults also required effective in situ conservation. Incremental implementation of effective conservation measures over the initial 10 years resulted in more free-living adults within 35 years if eggs were left in the wild without attempting captive breeding. 5. Synthesis and applications. For the great Indian bustard Ardeotis nigriceps, rapid implementation of in situ conservation offers a better chance to avoid extinction than captive breeding. Demographic modelling of threatened species should be used to examine whether captive breeding will bring net benefits to conservation programmes.
Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii numbers are declining as a result of unsustainable levels of hunting and poaching, with the main conservation response being population reinforcement through the release of captive-bred birds. We assessed the contribution of captive breeding to the species' conservation by examining the fates of 65 captive-bred birds fitted with satellite transmitters and released during spring (March-May) and autumn (August) into breeding habitat in Uzbekistan. Of the released birds, 58.5% survived to October, the month favoured by Emirati hunters in Uzbekistan, but only 10.8% of those released survived the winter to return as subadults next spring. To mitigate and compensate for the loss of wild adults to hunting, the number of released birds needs to be an order of magnitude higher than hunting quotas (with a release of between 1640 and 1920 required for a hypothetical quota of 200), indicating that releases may be costly and do not remove the need for a biologically determined sustainable hunting quota.
Translocation of captive-bred individuals to reinforce wild populations may be an important conservation approach for some species, but can be detrimental when employed to boost exploited wild populations, particularly where repeated long-term reinforcement aims to compensate for repeated unregulated offtake. We review evidence that captive breeding alters multiple physiological, life-history and temperamental traits through founder effects, genetic drift and unintended adaption to captivity; degrades learnt behaviours; and compromises biogeography, population structure and viability through introgression. We highlight these risks for the globally threatened African houbara Chlamydotis undulata and Asian houbara C. macqueenii, 2 bustard species hunted throughout much of their ranges and now subject to multiple large-scale captive-breeding programmes and translocations. In eastern Morocco, annual releases of captive-bred African houbara are 2‒3 times higher than original wild numbers, but no investigation of their potentially deleterious effects has, to our knowledge, been published, although most wild populations may now have been replaced by captive-bred domestic stock, which are reportedly not self-sustaining. Despite multiple decades of reinforcement, we are not aware of any analysis of the contribution of captive breeding to African houbara population dynamics, or of the genomic consequences. Asian houbara release programmes may also be promoting rather than preventing declines, and need to contextualise themselves through rigorous analyses of wild population numbers, demographic rates and threats, maintenance of phylogeographic concordance of released with supplemented populations, profiling of traits crucial to survival and the measurement and modelling of the impacts of reinforcement on physiological and behavioural fitness of wild populations.
Artificial incubation is fundamental in ex situ avian conservation interventions for an increasing range of threatened species, but incubation parameters can differ between species. Both egg-turning angle and frequency are critical for successful embryonic development, but measuring these parameters in wild birds has historically been difficult. Using data-loggers inside artificial eggs that accurately record parental egg attendance behaviours, we quantified turning angles and rates throughout the incubation of 6 nesting wild Asian houbaras Chlamydotis macqueenii, a species bred in captivity in response to human over-exploitation. Wild females turned their eggs 0.6 times h-1 with a mean angle of 40.9° turn-1. Mimicking the patterns of wild birds (‘wild’ treatment), we applied a mean angular change of 40-50° turn once h-1 to artificially incubated eggs and compared this to eggs treated with an existing protocol (‘control’) of 120-130° per turn. Mean hatchability for the wild treatment (78.8%, n = 766) was similar to the control (76.6%, n = 1196). The wild treatment (n = 591) produced significantly heavier hatchlings (2.7%) than the control treatment (n = 893). However, chick growth rates (g d-1 and daily % mass change) and survival to Day 10 were not different between groups. The wild treatment demonstrates that turning angles affect embryo development and, perhaps, hatchability. Investigating natural incubation behaviours using egg-loggers and applying these patterns to artificial incubation appears efficacious to achieve optimal incubation protocols and reduce the need for ex situ trial and error refinement in conservation interventions of captive-bred threatened bird species.
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