ISBN 978 1 86814 479 2All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the express permission, in writing, of both the author and the publisher.Cover photograph by Donald Cook at stock.xchng Cover design, layout and design by Acumen Publishing Solutions, JohannesburgPrinted and bound by Creda Communications, Cape Town Foreword SOUTH AFRICA and its people are blessed with diverse and thriving wildlife. We are also a developing economy with a growing population. From these facts emerges the particular situation of having most of our protected areas surrounded by land that has been transformed, to a greater or lesser extent, by human development. Large mammals, such as elephants, no longer roam the entire landscape, and their populations are no longer completely governed by the laws of nature. Protecting elephants and the ecological systems in which they exist in a practical and sustainable way that balances the needs of humans, elephants and the environment is a challenge to which I am committed.This Assessment was undertaken to reduce the degree of scientific uncertainty associated with decisions that must be made very soon and in the medium-to-long term. It helps to evaluate the costs and benefits associated with each choice, both in economic and ecological terms, and clarifies the legal framework within which they must be made. Collectively the chapters in this report reveal the many successes our country's experts, in collaboration with their peers in neighbouring countries and abroad, have achieved in understanding elephants and their needs, in fields as diverse as veterinary science, ecology, animal behaviour, population and resource modelling.Importantly, the Assessment exposes important gaps in our understanding and thus outlines necessary future avenues of research. This Assessment represents a key milestone in an ongoing Elephant Research Programme.Science does not provide all the information required to resolve the difficult issues raised by the management of elephant in a changing and humandominated world. Many of the required decisions have a strong element of human values implicit in them. How do South Africans wish to treat the other species with which they share our land? Extensive consultation and careful consideration of the values expressed by a wide range of stakeholders is also an essential part of the process of managing elephant in a democratic country.I am grateful to the many experts and interested persons who invested their time, experience and intellect to deliver this Assessment. I look forward to their continued engagement on the issue of elephant management, which is of great interest to many. Marthinus van Schalkwyk Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2008 ContentS LiSt oF FigureS LiSt oF boxeS About the AuthorS And ContributorS Brandon Anthony is an assistant professor at the Department of EnvironmentalScienc...
Trade decisions made by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species must place science over politics.
the most comprehensive data on poaching of African elephants comes from the Monitoring the illegal Killing of elephants (MiKe) program, which reports numbers of illegally killed carcasses encountered by rangers. Recent studies utilizing MiKe data have reported that poaching of African elephants peaked in 2011 and has been decreasing through 2018. Closer examination of these studies, however, raises questions about the conclusion that poaching is decreasing throughout the continent. to provide more accurate information on trends in elephant poaching, we analyzed MiKe data using state-space models. State-space models account for missing data and the error inherent when sampling carcasses. Using the state-space model, for 2011-2018, we found no significant temporal trends in rates of illegal killing for Southern, central and Western Africa. only in eastern Africa have poaching rates decreased substantially since 2011. For Africa as a whole, poaching did decline for 2011-2018, but the decline was entirely due to eastern African sites. our results suggest that poaching for ivory has not diminished across most of Africa since 2011. Continued vigilance and anti-poaching efforts will be necessary to combat poaching and to conserve African elephants. Beginning around 2007, a wave of poaching for ivory affected populations of savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana) and forest elephants (L. cyclotis) across Africa 1. The total population of savannah elephants decreased by 30% between 2007 and 2015 2 , and an estimated 100,000 elephants of both species were poached between 2010 and 2012 3. In some countries, elephant populations declined by over 50% in under 10 years 2. With elephant populations and ranges already greatly reduced from pre-colonial levels, such losses put many populations at risk of extirpation 4,5. Recent reports, however, indicate that elephant poaching may be abating 6,7. Since 2016, some African parks have reported reductions or even a halt in elephant poaching 8,9. Likewise, global ivory prices appear to have peaked and may have begun to fall, perhaps as a result of bans on ivory sales 10. Accurately determining whether or not poaching is diminishing is critical for evaluating the success of ivory trade bans and other anti-poaching measures. Controversially, several African countries have proposed selling stockpiles of ivory 11. Such sales may not be justifiable if elephant poaching is continuing at the high levels of the early 2010s. Elephant population surveys tend to be infrequent, so our main source of information on poaching rates is the Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) program, administered by the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Accordingly, rangers at sites across African gather data on the cause of death for elephant carcasses encountered during patrols 12. The proportion of carcasses killed illegally, as opposed to deaths due to natural causes, legal hunting, or killing of problem animals by wildlife authorities, is k...
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